Scenario of diapers and marketmakers: LSK's path to $2.00
Stage 1: "Sparking" trigger (Aggressive supply reduction)
Arguments:
The earlier hard burning of 100 million LSK tokens from the DAO treasury reduced the maximum emission by 25% (up to 300 million tokens).
In the conditions of limited access to old blockchain bridges and the completion of asset migration, the real number of liquid coins on centralized exchanges (the volume of free circulation) has been greatly reduced.
Price movement: Against the background of a sharp supply deficit, even a moderate inflow of speculative capital can repeatedly accelerate price growth, breaking through resistance.
Stage 2: Short Squeeze
Arguments:
As the history of trading on an asset shows, high volatility and surges of interest in futures markets regularly attract traders who open aggressive short positions (shorts) in anticipation of correction after pumps.
The accumulation of a large volume of margin positions for sale creates ideal conditions for the forced liquidation of shorts.
Price movement: When key psychological levels break (for example, fixing above $0.50-$0.70), bear stop losses are triggered, triggering a forced buying chain reaction, which can bring the asset in the range of $1.00 - $1.50 in a matter of hours.
Stage 3: Information HYIP and ecosystem restart (Enterprise direction)
Arguments:
The transition of the project to the concept of a corporate platform and fintech solutions (including integration with landing tools and payment gateways) should be supported by large-scale marketing campaigns and listings on new sites.
Investors in the altseason phase tend to massively transfer liquidity into "depreciated" coins with low capitalization, which have already demonstrated the ability to give Xs.
Price movement: The retail crowd (FOMO - fear of lost profits) picks up the trend on the wave of news in social networks, pulling quotes to the cherished goal of $2.00, which corresponds to the capitalization, which with a reduced pool of tokens looks upward for the speculative market.
⚠️ The main risks of the scenario (Why it may not work):
1. The "exit liquidity" effect: Often after sharp news surges and the closure of old technological cycles, large capital uses local pumps exclusively to record its own profits, leaving retail investors with losses.
2. Overbought on older timeframes: Technical indicators (e.g. extremely high RSI values) require deep unloading before starting any new sustainable trend. Without a healthy correction, an attempt to vertically grow above the current marks may end in an equally rapid collapse.
