#FedWatch
This was the classic "dovish cut, hawkish talk" trap.
Powell gave markets what they wanted - 25bps to 3.75%-4% - then took away December. That's not an accident.
He knows the labor market is softening but he cannot look political cutting into 3.9% GDP and 2.8% inflation with tariffs still lifting goods prices.
The line that matters: "Driving in fog, you slow down." Translation: shutdown blinded us, we won't pre-commit.
For crypto/risk assets, this is short-term pain. Rate cut odds for December collapsed from 92% to 30% in minutes. That repricing hit BTC, ETH, Nasdaq.
This is actually healthy. Two insurance cuts done. QT ending Dec 1 is the stealth easing. Fed wants to pause and see if jobs crack. If payrolls come back weak in November after shutdown, December cut is back on. If not, we wait till Jan.
Don't fight the pause.
This was the classic "dovish cut, hawkish talk" trap.
Powell gave markets what they wanted - 25bps to 3.75%-4% - then took away December. That's not an accident.
He knows the labor market is softening but he cannot look political cutting into 3.9% GDP and 2.8% inflation with tariffs still lifting goods prices.
The line that matters: "Driving in fog, you slow down." Translation: shutdown blinded us, we won't pre-commit.
For crypto/risk assets, this is short-term pain. Rate cut odds for December collapsed from 92% to 30% in minutes. That repricing hit BTC, ETH, Nasdaq.
This is actually healthy. Two insurance cuts done. QT ending Dec 1 is the stealth easing. Fed wants to pause and see if jobs crack. If payrolls come back weak in November after shutdown, December cut is back on. If not, we wait till Jan.
Don't fight the pause.
