$ONDO is ~$0.407 at 15:24 ICT Oct 29 on Binance spot (−2.6% 24h). It is −33% from the Sep 28 high ($0.609) and sitting right on the floor it built Oct 24–27 ($0.3966–0.4032). The RWA news is good; the chart is still weak. My plan is a small bid at the floor with a tight out.

🔥 What's moving it

• Oct 27: 15 Ondo tokenized stocks and ETFs went live on Robinhood Chain. 11 of them (incl. NVDA, SPY, TSLA, AAPL, QQQ) sit in new StablePair DEX pools paired 1:1 with Robinhood's own stock tokens.

• Why it matters: Ondo Stocks mint and redeem 24/7 on Ethereum and BNB Chain, so they give weekend liquidity and a redemption route when Robinhood's own window is closed.

• Scale: Ondo says its tokenized stock platform has ~$1.3B TVL and 450K+ holders since launching in Sep 2025.

• Price reaction: none. $ONDO opened Oct 27 at $0.4158 and is ~2% lower now. Market cap ~$1.99B, ~49% of the 10B supply circulating.

📊 Daily (1D)

ONDO ran from ~$0.33 (mid-Sep) to $0.609 (Sep 28), then bled for a month with lower highs at $0.533 (Oct 12) and $0.4725 (Oct 21).

It lost the 1D EMA20/50 (both ~$0.436–0.437, now flat and stacked) on Oct 22. The Oct 24–27 lows at $0.3966–0.4032 are the first floor. The 1D EMA200 (~$0.388) sits just under it. Wilder RSI(14) ~40.

⏱️ 4H

Late Oct 28 one 4H candle closed above the 4H EMA50 ($0.4254). The next one (03:00 ICT today) wicked to $0.4305 and closed back below, and the 07:00 candle dumped to $0.4022.

Price is under the 4H EMA20 (~$0.414) and EMA50 (~$0.421). Wilder RSI(14) ~42.

The floor has to hold here. A 4H close under $0.392 breaks four days of lows.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $0.398–0.405 (Oct 24–27 floor)

• TP1: $0.421–0.426 (4H EMA50 + Oct 28 closes, ~1.6–2.0R from $0.4015)

• TP2: $0.436–0.443 (1D EMA20/50 + Oct 23 highs, ~2.8–3.3R)

• Out: 4H close below $0.392 (stop $0.389, risk ~3.1%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $0.4305 (today's rejection)

• Bear case: a 4H close under $0.392 loses the 1D EMA200 area next and opens $0.370–0.375 (Sep 17–18 base)

💭 My take

Tokenized stocks are one of the few RWA lines with real users, and Ondo keeps shipping new chains. But the token has ignored the news so far, and BTC is still soft (~$80K) after the Fed hold. I like this level because the risk is small and clear: $0.389 is 3% away. I don't like that the first breakout try already failed today. So: small bid, no adds, and if $0.392 goes on a 4H close I'm out and wait for $0.37.

Would you bid $ONDO at $0.40 or wait for a 4H close above $0.4305? 👇

NFA. DYOR.