Tonight 8:30 PM - the final battle that decides the Fed's fate. Rate hike probability already at 85%.
Q3 GDP + September PCE + Initial Jobless Claims all dropping at once:
1. Core PCE
Expected: 0.3% MoM (prev 0.2%), 3.1% YoY (prev 3.0%)
2. GDP
QoQ annualized 3.2% (Q2 was 2.2%). September CPI already ran hot at 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY - mentally prepared for this.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 198-199k, prev 194k. Below 190k = more pressure. Above 210k = relief.
No bad news = good news.
Markets are coiled. Watch liquidity closely. If macro stays sticky hot, risk-off continues. If labor softens even slightly, we might see a relief bounce. Either way, volatility incoming.
Q3 GDP + September PCE + Initial Jobless Claims all dropping at once:
1. Core PCE
Expected: 0.3% MoM (prev 0.2%), 3.1% YoY (prev 3.0%)
2. GDP
QoQ annualized 3.2% (Q2 was 2.2%). September CPI already ran hot at 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY - mentally prepared for this.
3. Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 198-199k, prev 194k. Below 190k = more pressure. Above 210k = relief.
No bad news = good news.
Markets are coiled. Watch liquidity closely. If macro stays sticky hot, risk-off continues. If labor softens even slightly, we might see a relief bounce. Either way, volatility incoming.