This would be a major surprise, given current market pricing.
An immediately hike would signal that policymakers see a greater risk in allowing inflation to persist. Treasure yields and the dollar could raise sharply as investors reassess the expected path of monetary policy.
#BitcoinOutlook : Bearish. A surprise hike could uld trigger rapid repricing across risk assets, increase volatility and expose leverage crypto positions to liquidations. The size of the reaction would depend on how strongly markets had positioned for a pause.
#decemnberquestion The October decision is only part of the story. Investors will be for clues about the next meeting, scheduled for December 8-9.
Inflation remains the central issue. If price pressure stay elevated, the fed may have to tighten policy further despite the risk to economic growth. A pause in October would then represent a delay rather than a change in direction.
For crypto, that distinction matters. Markets can tolerate a rate hold while reacting negatively to the prospect of borrowing costs staying higher for longer.