$AERO is ~$0.705 at 15:15 ICT Oct 28 on Binance spot (+5.0% 24h). It is still −34% from the Oct 11 high ($0.993) and −14% since Aero went live on Oct 22. For three days it has held one floor, $0.659–0.667. My plan is to bid that base, not chase the bounce.

🔥 What's moving it

• Oct 22: Aerodrome (Base) and Velodrome (OP Mainnet) went live as one protocol, Aero, on 7 chains: Base, Ethereum, OP Mainnet, Arbitrum, Ink, Arc and Robinhood Chain.

• Old AERO converts 1:1 to new AERO. VELO converts at 0.044 AERO, so Velodrome holders get 5.5% of the new supply and Aerodrome holders 94.5%.

• Nov 3: Binance removes VELODROME/USDT at 10:00 ICT and pauses AERO deposits/withdrawals from 10:30 ICT. AERO spot trading stays open.

• Supply: circulating AERO rises from 1.00B to 1.07B (+7%), total from 2.0B to 2.12B.

• Revenue: the merged protocol earned ~$7.8M in the last 30 days, ~$95M annualized vs a ~$573M market cap (~6x).

📊 Daily (1D)

AERO topped at $0.993 on Oct 11, failed again at $0.981 on Oct 16, and has made lower highs since. On Oct 23 it closed below the 1D EMA50 (now ~$0.739).

Lows of $0.6667, $0.6587 and $0.6638 on Oct 25–27 form the first real floor in two weeks. Price is still under the 1D EMA20 (~$0.772) and EMA50, so the trend is down until it reclaims them. Wilder RSI(14) ~42.

⏱️ 4H

The Oct 27 19:00 ICT 4H candle pushed out of the base to a $0.714 high. Since then price has held $0.692–0.713.

It is back above the 4H EMA20 (~$0.698) but under the 4H EMA50 (~$0.735). Wilder RSI(14) ~50, neutral.

A healthy retest should hold $0.670–0.685, where the breakout started. A 4H close back under $0.655 breaks the triple low.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $0.670–0.685 (Oct 27 breakout base)

• TP1: $0.733–0.740 (Oct 23 close + 4H/1D EMA50, ~2.2–2.4R from $0.6775)

• TP2: $0.785–0.800 (Oct 22–23 breakdown area, ~4.2–4.8R)

• Out: 4H close below $0.655 (stop $0.652, risk ~3.8%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $0.714 (Oct 27 high)

• Bear case: a 4H close under $0.655 opens $0.636–0.646 (Sep 19–23 lows)

💭 My take

The merger gives AERO one token across 7 chains and ~$95M a year in revenue, and after a −34% drop that is no longer priced as hype. What I don't like: +7% circulating supply lands with the Nov 3 conversion, and new holders from VELO may sell. Binance spot volume is thin (~$2.9M/24h), and FOMC hits tonight (01:00 ICT Oct 29). Chasing at $0.705 gives only ~0.5–0.7R to TP1. So I'd leave a small bid at $0.670–0.685 and accept a miss.

Would you bid $AERO at $0.68 before the Nov 3 swap, or wait for a 4H close above $0.714? 👇

NFA. DYOR.