🚨 FED DECISION DAY: 94% "Sure Thing" — Still Dangerous for BTC

Decision tonight 11:00 PM PKT. Chair Warsh speaks 11:30 PM PKT.

📌 SETUP
Rate now: 3.75%–4.00%. CME FedWatch: ~91–94% HOLD. Hike ~5%, cut ~2%.

⚠️ REAL STORY = DECEMBER
Markets price ~70%+ odds of a December HIKE. The Fed doesn't need to hike today to move markets — it only needs to change December's odds. Warsh's words tonight will do exactly that.

📊 BTC NOW (live)
~$81,000 (+1.6%). Ceiling above: SMA20 $81,913 + SMA50 $81,935. RSI 45.9.
874K BTC accumulated at $81,000–$82,500 = heavy supply overhead. US spot demand still absent — Coinbase Premium negative all October.

🔑 LEVELS
Resistance: $81,300 → $81,900–$82,500 → $84,000
Support: $79,500 → $79,250 (Oct 24 low) → $77,000–$77,800

🎯 SCENARIOS
1️⃣ Hold + soft tone → relief to $82,500 / $84,000
2️⃣ Hold + hawkish tone → retest of $79,250
3️⃣ Surprise hike → $77,000 zone, fast

Thursday: PCE inflation report. Friday: ~$11B BTC options expiry. Volatility isn't over tonight.

My plan: no chasing the first candle. Watch a close above $81,900 or a loss of $79,250 — those two decide the next leg.

Hold or December surprise — what do you expect? 👇
Follow for tonight's post-decision reaction. Not financial advice.

#Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #Crypto