$BTC has reached a critical juncture as the US Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision approaches, amid persistent inflationary pressures and growing uncertainty over the path of monetary policy in the coming months. In my view, the meeting’s impact will extend beyond the interest rate decision itself to how markets interpret the central bank’s policy outlook and whether it intends to maintain restrictive monetary conditions or signal further tightening ahead.
These developments are particularly significant as $BTC trades near the $80,000 level after struggling to regain its bullish momentum. Following the latest pullback, the performance of the largest cryptocurrency has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, particularly US inflation, energy prices, Treasury yields, and movements in the US dollar. These factors highlight that Bitcoin does not move independently of traditional markets but is influenced by shifts in risk appetite and the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no regular income.
bearish scenario, persistent inflation and rising expectations of further monetary tightening could revive selling pressure on Bitcoin. In this case, the $77,000–$77,765 support zone deserves close attention. A decisive breakdown below this range, accompanied by stronger selling pressure, could deepen the correction. However, such a move alone would not be sufficient to confirm the start of a prolonged bear market.
In a bullish scenario, a less hawkish Fed tone, combined with improving investment flows and easing pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, could help $BTC reclaim nearby resistance levels, starting with $81,300 and then $82,500, based on the technical levels identified in the analysis. A sustained move above these areas could strengthen the recovery outlook, provided demand remains firm and the rally does not turn into a short-lived speculative move.
