$BTC is ~$80.27K at 07:11 ICT Oct 27 on Binance spot. Twice in three days it wicked under $80K ($79.22K on Oct 24, $79.37K on Oct 26) and both times the daily candle closed back above. With the Fed deciding tomorrow, my plan is a limit bid at the floor, not a chase.

🔥 What's moving it

• FOMC meets Oct 27–28. Decision Wed Oct 28, 2pm ET (01:00 ICT Thu). A hold at 3.75–4.00% is ~90–95% priced after September's hike, and a December hike is ~75–85% priced. So the decision itself is not the event; the statement and the press conference tone are.

• Thu Oct 29: September Core PCE (seen 3.1% y/y) and Q3 GDP, 8:30am ET (19:30 ICT). A hot print pushes December toward certainty.

• ETF flows: +$301M net last week, but it was +$1.07B Mon–Wed then −$774M Thu–Fri. Oct 22 (−$636M) was the biggest outflow day since June 25. One fund carried almost all the inflows.

• Cost basis: on-chain estimates put the average cost of ETF + treasury-company holders around $80.2K. That's exactly where price is sitting.

• Macro headwind: Brent closed Friday at $116.72, a six-month high, which keeps inflation worries alive.

📊 Daily (1D)

BTC topped at $84.90K on Oct 21, then lost ~6.7% into the Oct 24 low. It has closed every day above $80K since Sep 18.

Price is under the 1D EMA20 (~$81.78K) and sitting just below the EMA50 (~$80.78K). The EMA100 (~$77.71K) is the next big support below. Wilder RSI(14) ~42: soft, not oversold.

⏱️ 4H

Since the Oct 22 breakdown, 4H has printed lower highs: $82.06K (Oct 23), $81.03K (Oct 25), $80.84K (Oct 26). The lows keep landing in the same $79.2–79.8K pocket.

4H EMA20 (~$80.57K) is below the EMA50 (~$81.25K), both falling. Wilder RSI(14) ~43.

So the trend is still down on 4H. This is a floor bid with a tight invalidation, not a trend trade.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $79.4K–80.0K ($80K + Oct 24–26 lows)

• TP1: $81.9K–82.1K (Oct 23 high, ~2.0–2.2R from $79.7K)

• TP2: $84.0K–84.8K (Oct 21–22 highs, ~3.9–4.6R)

• Out: 4H close below $78.8K (stop $78.6K, risk ~1.4%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $81.3K (4H EMA50) breaks the lower-high chain

• Bear case: a 4H close under $78.8K means the floor failed. Then $77.4K–78.1K (1D EMA100) is the next shelf.

💭 My take

The floor has held on daily closes and the R:R from $79.4–80.0K is clean. What I don't like: lower highs on 4H, uneven ETF flows, oil at a six-month high, and a Fed that still leans toward another hike. Chasing at $80.27K gives only ~1R to TP1. So I keep the size small into 01:00 ICT Thursday, bid the floor, and accept being wrong on a 4H close under $78.8K.

Would you bid $BTC at $79.5K before the Fed, or wait for a 4H close above $81.3K? 👇

NFA. DYOR.