Dollar, US Treasuries, US stocks — looking at them together today
Let’s finish counting the US stock numbers first, then decide whether to follow the crypto market.
Which sectors are leading, which are lagging — look at the gain/loss, not the story.
Gold 4,020 (5-day -3.14%, Yahoo)
US 10Y Treasury 4.99% (5-day -2.56%)
VIX 18.39 (5-day +6.24%)
Judgment: Nasdaq 5-day -0.99% is behind the S&P’s -0.18%, so growth stocks are underperforming. Chasing AI coins at this point means taking Beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Funding side: BTC 80194 (+0.19%). ETH -0.02% is tracking closely with BTC +0.19%, exchange rate 0.02898. If there’s no independent move, don’t go all-in on altcoins.
The next thing to watch is whether the 10-year yield can stop rising. If yields keep moving up, I’ll treat rebounds in growth stocks and BTC as just a pullback.
My position: only buy the dip, don’t chase breakouts. If the structure isn’t broken, you can keep a core position; adding exposure must wait for a pullback.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDT-margined / Yahoo daily line (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are not filled in.
Are you now sitting in cash waiting for a pullback, or are you already on the bus?
#美股 #板块 #BTC
Key point: when Powell speaks, look at whether the phrase “data dependence” has loosened or not, not at adjectives.
Inspiration: the strongest meme coin didn’t beat BTC+2% — treat it as volatility, not a sector.
Data card (same round as the main text, missing values are shown with a dash):
BTC 80,194 +0.19% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,324 -0.02% ETH/BTC 0.02898
S&P 7,677 -0.18% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,169 -0.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.24% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.39 +6.24% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.65B (24h +1.46) Long/short 2.2798 Binance USDT-margined
Side note: people out there are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News”. I only take that as background; the conclusion still follows the numbers in the main text.
Personal view, numbers sourced in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s finish counting the US stock numbers first, then decide whether to follow the crypto market.
Which sectors are leading, which are lagging — look at the gain/loss, not the story.
Gold 4,020 (5-day -3.14%, Yahoo)
US 10Y Treasury 4.99% (5-day -2.56%)
VIX 18.39 (5-day +6.24%)
Judgment: Nasdaq 5-day -0.99% is behind the S&P’s -0.18%, so growth stocks are underperforming. Chasing AI coins at this point means taking Beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Funding side: BTC 80194 (+0.19%). ETH -0.02% is tracking closely with BTC +0.19%, exchange rate 0.02898. If there’s no independent move, don’t go all-in on altcoins.
The next thing to watch is whether the 10-year yield can stop rising. If yields keep moving up, I’ll treat rebounds in growth stocks and BTC as just a pullback.
My position: only buy the dip, don’t chase breakouts. If the structure isn’t broken, you can keep a core position; adding exposure must wait for a pullback.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDT-margined / Yahoo daily line (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are not filled in.
Are you now sitting in cash waiting for a pullback, or are you already on the bus?
#美股 #板块 #BTC
Key point: when Powell speaks, look at whether the phrase “data dependence” has loosened or not, not at adjectives.
Inspiration: the strongest meme coin didn’t beat BTC+2% — treat it as volatility, not a sector.
Data card (same round as the main text, missing values are shown with a dash):
BTC 80,194 +0.19% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,324 -0.02% ETH/BTC 0.02898
S&P 7,677 -0.18% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,169 -0.99% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.24% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.39 +6.24% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.65B (24h +1.46) Long/short 2.2798 Binance USDT-margined
Side note: people out there are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News”. I only take that as background; the conclusion still follows the numbers in the main text.
Personal view, numbers sourced in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL