$HYPE is ~$75.5 at 11:26 ICT Oct 26 on OKX/Binance spot, about 23% below the $98.04 record from Sep 23. Price is back on the Oct 24 low ($74.46). My plan: a small bid on that floor with a tight out, not a chase.

🔥 What's moving it

• Supply: 9.92M HYPE (core contributors) unlocks on Nov 6, roughly $750M at today's price. Earlier monthly team payouts were only ~140K–534K HYPE; October's 3.75M batch went OTC, not onto the order book.

• Demand: the Assistance Fund keeps buying with trading fees, ~21.5K HYPE (~$1.7M) a day over Oct 19–24, ~$64.5M in the last 30 days (down ~16% vs the prior 30). It holds ~48.2M HYPE.

• ETFs: US spot HYPE funds are net -$42.5M since Oct 7 (through Oct 23), with no inflow day yet.

• Oct 23: Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) raised its stock buyback to $100M. That buys PURR shares, not HYPE.

• Headwinds: share of RWA perps reportedly fell from ~80% to ~26%, and CME's CEO publicly questioned the lack of KYC.

• Macro: BTC is ~$79.9K, just under $80K.

📊 Daily (1D)

Lower highs since the top: $98.0 (Sep 23) → $95.3 (Oct 5) → $88.1 (Oct 12) → $82.5 (Oct 21).

Price is below the 1D EMA20 (~$80.5) and EMA50 (~$81.6), and now slipped under the EMA100 (~$77.0). The EMA200 sits much lower at ~$67.5.

Wilder RSI(14) ~35: weak, not yet oversold. Volume on the last closed day was only ~0.5x the 20-day average, so sellers are not in a hurry either.

⏱️ 4H

The Oct 24 flush to $74.46 came on ~1.7–1.9x average 4H volume. This morning's 07:00 ICT candle tested $75.00 on ~1.4x.

4H EMA20 (~$76.8) is under the EMA50 (~$78.3), both still pointing down. Wilder RSI(14) ~39.

This is a floor retest inside a downtrend, so the trade only works with a tight invalidation.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $74.4–75.2 (Oct 24 + Oct 26 lows)

• TP1: $78.3–78.9 (4H EMA50 + Oct 22–23 highs, ~2.2–2.6R from $74.8)

• TP2: $81.6–82.5 (1D EMA50 + Oct 21 high, ~4.3–4.8R)

• Out: 4H close below $73.4 (stop $73.2, risk ~2.1%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $79.0 flips the 4H trend and opens $81.6–82.5

• Bear case: lose $73.4 and the next shelf is $71.3–72.6, the Aug 19–21 breakout base

💭 My take

HYPE still has one of the strongest fee engines in crypto, and the buyback never stops. But buybacks of ~$1.7M a day can't absorb a full 9.92M unlock if the team sells it on the book. So the real question is what happens on Nov 6, and the market is pricing that risk now. I'll take a small bid at $74.4–75.2 for a bounce to the 4H EMA50, take profit fast, and stay out if $73.4 breaks. No adding into the unlock.

Would you buy $HYPE at $75, or wait until after the Nov 6 unlock? 👇

NFA. DYOR.