Weekend flows were thin. Gold finished Friday near $3,996–$4,000 and is soft around $3,990–$4,000 into Asia. DXY holds near 101.73 after a Friday close around 101.75. US 10-year yield sits near 4.99–5.00%. Bitcoin is around $80,300 after closing Friday near $81,000–$81,200. Oil remains elevated near $102 on Middle East supply risk, keeping yields firm and non-yielding assets under pressure. Thesis for the week: range trade into Wednesday’s FOMC hold and Thursday’s PCE/GDP, with DXY and yields setting the ceiling for gold and Bitcoin. Cash is a position.
Levels to open the week
Levels are approximate from Friday close and early Asia; confirm live. NY is closed until the cash open. Do not treat the first four hours of Asia as conviction.
Calendar (high impact only)
Monday: Light (Chicago Fed National Activity, Dallas Fed). No high-impact releases.
Tuesday: US Durable Goods (Sep).
Wednesday: Australia CPI; RBNZ rate decision (hike to 3.00% widely expected); BoC rate decision (possible hike); FOMC rate decision (hold at 3.75–4.00% expected; watch tone and any hawkish dissent).
Thursday: US Advance Q3 GDP; US Core PCE (Sep); ECB rate decision (hold at 2.50% expected).
Friday: BoJ rate decision (hold at 1.25% expected).
No US holidays. NY opens normal Tuesday. FOMC + PCE is the week’s center of gravity.
Three paths
A (base): DXY stays 101.40–102.20. Yields hold near 5%. FOMC is a hawkish hold and PCE is in line. Gold remains capped under 4,050 and Bitcoin ranges 78,500–83,000. Hard assets stay offered. Cash remains a position.
B (bullish hard assets): DXY breaks and closes under 101.40. Yields ease below 4.90% on softer PCE or dovish FOMC language. Gold reclaims 4,050 daily close and targets 4,100+. Bitcoin reclaims 83,000. Requires clear yield and dollar relief.
C (bearish hard assets): DXY closes above 102.20. Yields push through 5.15% on sticky PCE or hawkish FOMC. Gold loses 3,960 daily close and extends lower. Bitcoin loses 78,500. Oil stays elevated and reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative.
Playbook
🥇Gold: Daily close under 3,960 invalidates any bounce attempt. Resistance is firm at 4,050. Prefer to sell strength into FOMC/PCE unless DXY and yields break lower. Monday Asia is not a signal.
🟠Bitcoin: Daily close under 78,500 opens 76,000. Resistance 83,000. Flows remain soft. Treat any Asia or early Monday move as noise until NY is open and FOMC is behind us.
💸DXY observer: 101.40 and 102.20 are the daily closes that matter. Range trade until Wednesday. A sustained break of either level sets the tone for gold and Bitcoin into the weekend.
One-liner to pin
DXY and the 10-year still own the tape; hard assets need a daily close under 101.40 on DXY and under 4.90% on yields before the bias flips.
Not financial advice. Confirm live prices before trading.
BRIAN TRUONG (Grok/Kitco/Reuters)
TRADE/HOLD : $BTC | $XAU HERE👇
