🚨 GOLD JUST ENTERED A BEAR MARKET IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR.
THE FED DECIDES IN 4 DAYS. AMERICA VOTES IN 10. AND OIL IS ALMOST DOUBLE WHERE IT WAS IN DECEMBER.
Gold closed Friday at $3,996.
I think next week could be one of the most dangerous weeks for gold traders all year.
And almost nobody is explaining why.
Here's where everything finished on Friday:
Gold: $3,996. Down $169 on the week. Its WORST week since June.
Brent crude: $116.72.
WTI crude: $103.27.
US 10 year yield: 4.999%.
The Dow: down 653 points.
The dollar index: 101.75.
The US and Israel started striking Iran at the end of February.
On paper, a war in the Middle East is the best thing that can happen to gold.
Fear. Safe haven. Everyone runs to gold.
Yet gold closed at $5,278 the day the strikes were ordered.
On Friday it closed at $3,996.
That's $1,282 GONE since the war started. Down 24%.
And from the January record of $5,598, gold is down 28.6%.
That's BEAR MARKET territory. Not a dip. Not a pullback.
So what happened?
Follow the money:
The war pushed oil up.
Brent has almost DOUBLED since December, from $58.72 to $116.72.
Expensive oil means inflation.
Inflation means the Fed can't cut.
Rate markets now price a 78% chance the Fed HIKES in December (Prime Terminal, via FXStreet).
Hike talk lifts yields. The 10 year sits just under 5% now.
And gold, which pays you nothing, has to compete with a bond paying almost 5%.
That's the chain that has been crushing gold all year.
And this week it got worse.
On Monday, Iran's IRGC said 2 oil tankers hit its mines and caught fire just south of the Strait of Hormuz (Euronews).
Those are threats, not attacks.
But gold doesn't trade what already happened. It trades what might happen next.
And every new jump in oil feeds straight back into that chain.
Now look at the calendar.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28: THE FED. 2 PM NEW YORK.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3: THE US MIDTERMS.
$XAU $QNT $BTC
#BinancePick #EarningsSeason #USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek #SouthKoreaDelaysCryptoIncomeTax #DowDrops653Points
THE FED DECIDES IN 4 DAYS. AMERICA VOTES IN 10. AND OIL IS ALMOST DOUBLE WHERE IT WAS IN DECEMBER.
Gold closed Friday at $3,996.
I think next week could be one of the most dangerous weeks for gold traders all year.
And almost nobody is explaining why.
Here's where everything finished on Friday:
Gold: $3,996. Down $169 on the week. Its WORST week since June.
Brent crude: $116.72.
WTI crude: $103.27.
US 10 year yield: 4.999%.
The Dow: down 653 points.
The dollar index: 101.75.
The US and Israel started striking Iran at the end of February.
On paper, a war in the Middle East is the best thing that can happen to gold.
Fear. Safe haven. Everyone runs to gold.
Yet gold closed at $5,278 the day the strikes were ordered.
On Friday it closed at $3,996.
That's $1,282 GONE since the war started. Down 24%.
And from the January record of $5,598, gold is down 28.6%.
That's BEAR MARKET territory. Not a dip. Not a pullback.
So what happened?
Follow the money:
The war pushed oil up.
Brent has almost DOUBLED since December, from $58.72 to $116.72.
Expensive oil means inflation.
Inflation means the Fed can't cut.
Rate markets now price a 78% chance the Fed HIKES in December (Prime Terminal, via FXStreet).
Hike talk lifts yields. The 10 year sits just under 5% now.
And gold, which pays you nothing, has to compete with a bond paying almost 5%.
That's the chain that has been crushing gold all year.
And this week it got worse.
On Monday, Iran's IRGC said 2 oil tankers hit its mines and caught fire just south of the Strait of Hormuz (Euronews).
Those are threats, not attacks.
But gold doesn't trade what already happened. It trades what might happen next.
And every new jump in oil feeds straight back into that chain.
Now look at the calendar.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28: THE FED. 2 PM NEW YORK.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3: THE US MIDTERMS.
$XAU $QNT $BTC
#BinancePick #EarningsSeason #USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek #SouthKoreaDelaysCryptoIncomeTax #DowDrops653Points
