I'm going to be the annoying one who says the obvious: nobody agrees on anything right now, and that's usually the tell.
Ben Cowen says the bottom is not in — Bitcoin's October 2025 top near $126K fits the four-year cycle, and if history rhymes (Nov 2022, Dec 2018 both bottomed late in midterm years) the flush isn't finished. Keith Alan's line is simple: below the 50-day SMA at ~$81.8K, and we're testing $78–80K. Daan Crypto Trades is eyeing $72–75K if $80K fails.
But the other camp has real ammunition too. US spot ETFs pulled $1.07B in the three days before Thursday — real demand, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Analysts surveyed by CryptoPotato and BITRSS expect a $74–81K bottom with a 4–8 week recovery rally if it holds.
Here's where I land: reluctantly, I'm with Cowen. Thursday's $635.6M ETF outflow was the largest since June, the Nasdaq just had its worst session since June, Brent is above $111 on Iran strike chatter, and 89% of the $436M in liquidations were longs. Every rally into Glassnode's $87–88K band has been sold since Oct 2.
But I'll be honest about the thing that would embarrass me: if $80K holds this weekend and Monday opens with a bid. That $81.3–81.5K zone is the ETF cost basis — institutions tend to defend their entries.
So vote with me:
A) Bottom's in — $80K held, ride it
B) One more flush — $74–76K first, then buy
C) This cycle is broken — forget the four-year script
What's your vote, and what single level decides it for you?
$BTC
Ben Cowen says the bottom is not in — Bitcoin's October 2025 top near $126K fits the four-year cycle, and if history rhymes (Nov 2022, Dec 2018 both bottomed late in midterm years) the flush isn't finished. Keith Alan's line is simple: below the 50-day SMA at ~$81.8K, and we're testing $78–80K. Daan Crypto Trades is eyeing $72–75K if $80K fails.
But the other camp has real ammunition too. US spot ETFs pulled $1.07B in the three days before Thursday — real demand, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Analysts surveyed by CryptoPotato and BITRSS expect a $74–81K bottom with a 4–8 week recovery rally if it holds.
Here's where I land: reluctantly, I'm with Cowen. Thursday's $635.6M ETF outflow was the largest since June, the Nasdaq just had its worst session since June, Brent is above $111 on Iran strike chatter, and 89% of the $436M in liquidations were longs. Every rally into Glassnode's $87–88K band has been sold since Oct 2.
But I'll be honest about the thing that would embarrass me: if $80K holds this weekend and Monday opens with a bid. That $81.3–81.5K zone is the ETF cost basis — institutions tend to defend their entries.
So vote with me:
A) Bottom's in — $80K held, ride it
B) One more flush — $74–76K first, then buy
C) This cycle is broken — forget the four-year script
What's your vote, and what single level decides it for you?
$BTC