Is the US yield curve steeper or flatter than a year ago? It depends which gap you measure
Two gaps, two opposite stories: The US Treasury's par yield curve for 2026-10-21 shows the 10-year at 5.13%, the 2-year at 4.81% and the 3-month at 4.25%. Two common ways to describe the curve's slope use these points. The 10-year minus the 2-year is 0.32 percentage points. The 10-year minus the 3-month is 0.88 percentage points.
Why they disagree
• 3-month: from 3.96% to 4.25%, up 0.29 points
• 2-year: from 3.45% to 4.81%, up 1.36 points
• 10-year: from 3.98% to 5.13%, up 1.15 points
Two readings, both still alive: The first reading is about the short end. A 2-year yield largely reflects where the market expects short-term interest rates to sit over the next two years. A jump from 3.45% to 4.81% can mean those expectations moved up a lot. The second reading is about the long end.
The line to keep: A curve can look steeper and flatter on the same day, because the answer depends on which two points you pick.
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Two gaps, two opposite stories: The US Treasury's par yield curve for 2026-10-21 shows the 10-year at 5.13%, the 2-year at 4.81% and the 3-month at 4.25%. Two common ways to describe the curve's slope use these points. The 10-year minus the 2-year is 0.32 percentage points. The 10-year minus the 3-month is 0.88 percentage points.
Why they disagree
• 3-month: from 3.96% to 4.25%, up 0.29 points
• 2-year: from 3.45% to 4.81%, up 1.36 points
• 10-year: from 3.98% to 5.13%, up 1.15 points
Two readings, both still alive: The first reading is about the short end. A 2-year yield largely reflects where the market expects short-term interest rates to sit over the next two years. A jump from 3.45% to 4.81% can mean those expectations moved up a lot. The second reading is about the long end.
The line to keep: A curve can look steeper and flatter on the same day, because the answer depends on which two points you pick.
Send me a chat with the word CHECK and I will send you the full lesson, free.
Last image: a portfolio on our demo account, sample holdings. Everything you own in one place, in one currency.
How do you read this one? Answer below.
Follow for a note a day on what the numbers actually say.
$BTC
#TradingPsychology #Crypto #CreviaCockpit