SPCX is flashing a textbook short opportunity, and the chart is giving us a clear roadmap. After a brutal slide from the $176 highs earlier this month, price has bounced weakly into a heavy supply zone. This isnât a call to blindly short strengthâitâs a tactical play on a lower high forming beneath key resistance.
Here is the exact breakdown.
đ The Trade Setup
¡ Entry Zone: 163.00 â 164.50
¡ TP1: 160.70
¡ TP2: 158.70
¡ TP3: 154.50
¡ Stop Loss: 168.80
đ§ Why This Setup Makes Sense (The âWhyâ)
The daily chart for SPCX tells a story of distribution. Since topping out near $176 on October 6, the stock has been making lower highs and lower lows . The recent bounce from the $143 lows is approaching a critical confluence of resistance.
1. The Falling Knife: The move from $176 to $143 was sharp and accompanied by heavy volume, signaling genuine selling pressure, not just a pullback . Rallies after such drops are often sold into by trapped buyers looking to break even.
2. The 163â164 Zone: This area aligns with the breakdown point from October 12 and the prior support that has now flipped to resistance . If bulls canât reclaim this level decisively, the path of least resistance remains down.
3. Fundamental Headwind: While SpaceXâs Q2 revenue growth was impressive (up 92%), the valuation is stretched with a price-to-sales ratio near 68x . In a market that is increasingly scrutinizing AI and tech valuations, any rally into resistance is likely to face institutional selling pressure.
đĄď¸ Risk Management (Non-Negotiable)
The stop loss at 168.80 is placed above the recent swing high structure. If price reclaims this level, the short thesis is invalidated, and we step aside. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting the recent lows near 154.50 if momentum resumes.
đ The Verdict
This is a momentum short into a resistance zone. Do not chase the entry if price runs past 165 without a clear rejection. Wait for the price action to confirm the rejection at the 163â164 level before executing. If we see a strong hourly close above 165, stand downâthe bulls might be taking control.
Disclaimer: This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Trading leveraged products carries significant risk of loss.
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