$47M of ZRO unlocked — price went up. $18M of ARB unlocked — price went up. October is grading crypto's oldest myth, and the scoreboard is ugly.
Three unlocks, three verdicts.
$ZRO — Oct 20: ~23.6M tokens (~$47M) released to core contributors + strategic partners. Price now $2.03, up on the day, nearly double the mid-September lows — AFTER the unlock. Verdict: passed.
$ARB — Oct 16: 92.65M ARB (~$18.4M). Price $0.194, holding above the $0.173 base it built. Verdict: passed. It bounced instead of breaking.
$STRK — Oct 15: 127M STRK (~$15.6M). Price $0.063, +11% today, just reclaimed its 4h EMA20 as volume returned. Verdict: passing. Buyers finally showed up.
Two are still being graded: SPCXB's 1.3B-share unlock is live TODAY — the biggest single release of the year, ~28% of the main lockup pool. And ALT's ~240M advisor unlock lands Oct 25–26 (only ~3% of circulating — a small test).
The lesson is not that unlocks do not matter. An unlock frees supply — it does not print sell orders. Teams that believed at $0.19 do not always dump at $2.03.
3 for 3 so far. Does today's SPCXB tape break the streak — or is "unlock = dump" officially dead?
Three unlocks, three verdicts.
$ZRO — Oct 20: ~23.6M tokens (~$47M) released to core contributors + strategic partners. Price now $2.03, up on the day, nearly double the mid-September lows — AFTER the unlock. Verdict: passed.
$ARB — Oct 16: 92.65M ARB (~$18.4M). Price $0.194, holding above the $0.173 base it built. Verdict: passed. It bounced instead of breaking.
$STRK — Oct 15: 127M STRK (~$15.6M). Price $0.063, +11% today, just reclaimed its 4h EMA20 as volume returned. Verdict: passing. Buyers finally showed up.
Two are still being graded: SPCXB's 1.3B-share unlock is live TODAY — the biggest single release of the year, ~28% of the main lockup pool. And ALT's ~240M advisor unlock lands Oct 25–26 (only ~3% of circulating — a small test).
The lesson is not that unlocks do not matter. An unlock frees supply — it does not print sell orders. Teams that believed at $0.19 do not always dump at $2.03.
3 for 3 so far. Does today's SPCXB tape break the streak — or is "unlock = dump" officially dead?