The latest data from a survey of 100 economists from Reuters showed a rare unanimity: 94 out of 100 experts expect the Fed's key rate to remain at 3.75%-4.00% in October. It would seem a great reason for the bulls to breathe out? Not exactly. All 100 respondents predict a rate increase already in December due to stable inflation.

Let's analyze what this means for the cryptocurrency market and how to work with it.

1. Short-term breath of air (October)

The expected pause of the Fed is a traditional positive for risky assets. At the moment, the market gets a temporary respite from aggressive tightening. For BTC and key altcoins, this gives a window for local rebounds and consolidation. Traders can use this time to work out short-term setups.

2. The main brake is the profitability of Bonds (5.1%+)

Don't have any illusions about an instant rally "to the moon". The main factor of pressure right now is the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (US10Y), which is above 5.1%.

As long as institutionalists can receive more than 5% of guaranteed profitability in risk-free bonds, the flow of large capital into the crypt remains limited. This is what "squeezes" bitcoin in the side and restrains altcoins from aggressive growth.

3. Damocles' sword of December

The forecast of 100% of economists about the December rate increase is a powerful hawkish signal. The market will start laying down this scenario in advance (already in November). This means that any October rally will be under risk and is likely to face profit fixing on the approach to key resistance levels.