81 Milliarden SHIB über Nacht von den Börsen verschwunden. Freu dich noch nicht zu früh.

Muhamamd Adeel · 2026-10-17T08:28:43.000Z

81 Milliarden SHIB haben innerhalb von 24 Stunden die Börsen verlassen. Wenn dein erster Gedanke „bullisch“ war, kann ich das verstehen – meiner war es auch. Dann habe ich nachgesehen, was bei den letzten drei Malen geschah, als genau diese Schlagzeile erschien. Hier sind die tatsächlichen Zahlen. Laut den heute Morgen veröffentlichten Daten von CryptoQuant beliefen sich die Bruttoabflüsse auf rund 81 Milliarden SHIB, während der Nettofluss mit minus 32,76 Milliarden zu Buche schlug – es verließen also mehr Coins die Börsen, als ankamen. Die Börsenreserven liegen bei 87,09 Billionen, unverändert zum Vortag, und die Zahl der aktiven Adressen stieg um 1 % auf 165.200. Als diese Daten bekannt wurden, hielt sich $SHIB bei etwa 0,00000514 $, rund 4 % höher als vor 24 Stunden, und die Marktkapitalisierung war gerade wieder über 3 Milliarden $ gestiegen. Auf Kraken liegt der Kurs jetzt bei 0,00000508 $, ein klein wenig niedriger als am Vortag. Also ja – die Abflüsse sind real. Die Feier kommt zu früh.

Eighty-one billion SHIB just walked off exchanges in 24 hours. If your first instinct is "bullish," I get it — mine was too. Then I checked what happened the last three times this exact headline ran.
Here is the real number. Per CryptoQuant data reported this morning, gross outflows hit roughly 81 billion SHIB while netflow printed negative 32.76 billion — more coins left than arrived. Exchange reserves sit at 87.09 trillion, flat on the day, and active addresses ticked up 1% to 165,200. When that data hit, $SHIB held near $0.00000514, up about 4% in 24 hours, and its market cap had just climbed back above $3 billion. On Kraken it is now $0.00000508, a touch lower on the day. So yes — the flow is real. The celebration is premature.
Because we have seen this movie. Late September: 74 billion SHIB left exchanges, and the headlines called it the strongest Q3 ever. October 13: another 27.3 billion exited. And $SHIB is still down about 50% over the past year and 25% year to date. Outflows keep happening. The sustained rally keeps not happening. An outflow tells you coins moved to private wallets. It does not tell you why, or whether they will return. One big wallet rebalancing looks identical to a thousand holders accumulating — until it does not.
The rest of the picture is just as mixed. Derivatives are dead quiet: only about $28,800 in liquidations in 24 hours, most of that shorts getting squeezed — but the OKX long/short ratio sits at 2.79, meaning the crowd is already leaning heavily long. That positioning gets punished if price stalls. And the burn story SHIB bulls always fall back on has gone cold this week, with daily burn activity collapsing even as the Rakuten physical-coin giveaway grabs headlines. A souvenir metal coin is a fun promo. It is not demand. Remember that every SHIB move still settles on $ETH rails, so the token never escapes the wider market mood.
What actually matters? The chart is brutally simple. $SHIB has to hold $0.00000500 — the line it just reclaimed — and then clear $0.00000520, the top of its recent range, with $0.00000528 above that. Lose $0.00000494 and the whole "hope" narrative resets to the same range it has been stuck in for weeks. The honest tell is not today's outflow number. It is whether netflow stays negative for days, not hours, and whether reserves actually fall instead of sitting flat near 87 trillion.
I am watching this one, not chasing it. The outflow is a genuine green shoot — coins leaving exchanges is never a bearish signal on its own — but SHIB has handed us green shoots all year and then handed the gains straight back. Check the chart, watch the $0.00000500 line, and let the next few days prove whether this was accumulation or one wallet moving house. If the flows repeat, the setup gets real. Until then, it is a headline, not a trend.
Not financial advice. DYOR.