BoJ-Chef Ueda: Zinsen werden weiter angehoben – Zeitpunkt und Tempo hängen von Wechselkursen, KI-Nachfrage und Nahost ab

Rymond Inc · 2026-10-16T12:23:52.000Z

Der Gouverneur der Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, sagte nach den G20-Treffen dieser Woche, dass die Zentralbank die Zinsen weiter anheben werde, da sich die zugrunde liegende Inflation dem Ziel von 2 % nähere und die finanziellen Bedingungen weiterhin akkommodierend seien. Er machte den Zeitpunkt und das Tempo künftiger Zinserhöhungen davon abhängig, wie sich Wechselkurse, die KI-Nachfrage und die Entwicklungen im Nahen Osten auf die Preise auswirken. Außerdem sagte er, die BoJ werde bei ihrer bevorstehenden Sitzung erörtern, ob sie ihre Einschätzung anpassen solle, wonach sich die zugrunde liegende Inflation der Marke von 2 % nähere. Diese Formulierung ist wichtig, weil sie zeigt, wie nahe die Bank ihr Ziel glaubt.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will keep raising interest rates, speaking after this week’s G20 meetings, as underlying inflation closes in on the 2% target and financial conditions stay accommodative.
He tied the timing and pace of future hikes to the impact of FX, AI demand and Middle East developments on prices, and said the BoJ will discuss at its upcoming meeting whether to tweak its assessment that underlying inflation is approaching 2%. That wording matters because it shows how close the bank believes it is to its goal. 
Ueda also set a firm ceiling, warning that the BoJ can’t tolerate underlying inflation further above 2% and that overshooting the target is a real risk. The bank now turns to entrenching 2% inflation, he said. 
On the neutral rate, he pushed back on any fixed estimate. He sees no evidence it sits around a particular level, and he wants to gauge it by weighing the cumulative impact of past hikes on financial conditions and domestic prices. 
Turning to the G20 talks, Ueda said nothing he heard this week deviated from the BoJ’s baseline view, and he sees no big gap between the bank’s read on AI-driven inflationary pressure and what global policymakers told him.
Key Quotes:Monetary Policy
We will continue to raise interest rates as underlying inflation approaching 2%, financial conditions are accommodative.
Timing, pace of future rate hikes will be decided looking at impact of FX, AI demand and Middle East developments on prices.
We will discuss at upcoming meeting whether to tweak our assessment that underlying inflation is approaching 2%.
Underlying inflation quite close to 2% marks the policy shift.
We did not hear anything at this week’s meetings that deviated from our baseline view.
Inflation
Price trend is approaching 2%.
We will focus on entrenching 2% inflation from now on.
Stabilization of 2% inflation is increasingly important.
We can’t tolerate underlying inflation further above 2%.
There is risk of underlying inflation overshooting 2% price target.
Neutral Rate
There is no evidence that the neutral rate is around any particular level.
I want to gauge the neutral rate estimate taking into account the cumulative impact of past rate hikes on financial conditions and domestic prices.
Yen & Middle East Risks
I have been watching weak yen, MidEast in terms of inflation.
AI & Global Policymakers
The G20 discussed impact of MidEast, AI on economy.
No big gap in view between what we have assessed on inflationary pressure from AI demand, and what I heard from global policymakers.
Haven’t been in touch with US Treasury Secretary Bessent since we met in Asheville.