Thailand's borrowing costs aren't rising because of wider spreads—it's the global rate floor that's been jacked up.
IMF just dropped this in Bangkok:
Developed nations = the real debt addicts this cycle. Low-income countries? Debt levels barely moved, some even down. But here's the kicker: debt servicing ate 6% of gov revenue a decade ago. Now it's 14%.
The question isn't IF rates stay elevated—it's HOW LONG liquidity stays this tight. Macro's still broken for emerging markets carrying dollar debt.
Are we pricing in a prolonged high-rate regime or still hoping for pivots that won't come?
IMF just dropped this in Bangkok:
Developed nations = the real debt addicts this cycle. Low-income countries? Debt levels barely moved, some even down. But here's the kicker: debt servicing ate 6% of gov revenue a decade ago. Now it's 14%.
The question isn't IF rates stay elevated—it's HOW LONG liquidity stays this tight. Macro's still broken for emerging markets carrying dollar debt.
Are we pricing in a prolonged high-rate regime or still hoping for pivots that won't come?