📊 Sept CPI Came In Hot: Oil Pressure Is Now Showing Up in Core
The September CPI beat on both lines:
▪️ Headline: +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y (forecast 3.6%)
▪️ Core: +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y (forecast 0.2% / 2.5%)
▪️ Energy: +5.2% m/m, more than half of the headline increase
Treasuries reacted fast: The 2-year yield jumped ~10 bps to ~4.9%, and the 10-year rose to ~5.30%, near its 24-year high of 5.365%. Odds of an Oct 28 Fed hike roughly doubled to ~44% from ~22% (CME FedWatch), with over 95% odds of at least one hike by year-end.
Oil: Brent gained 14%+ in September (~42% in Q3) and traded near $105 before the print. A core beat suggests energy costs are spreading into the broader economy, not just the pump.
My view (scenarios, not a call):
🛢️ Oil: While Middle East tensions escalate, upside risk stays. A de-escalation headline could unwind it quickly.
📈 Treasuries: A hot core print keeps yield pressure up, with the front end most sensitive to hike odds. Softer jobs or PCE data is what would cool it.
Where do you stand on oil and Treasuries after this print? Share your trade card below 👇
Not financial advice. Data as of Oct 14, 2026.
$BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT
#CPIWatch #iqralogichub
The September CPI beat on both lines:
▪️ Headline: +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y (forecast 3.6%)
▪️ Core: +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y (forecast 0.2% / 2.5%)
▪️ Energy: +5.2% m/m, more than half of the headline increase
Treasuries reacted fast: The 2-year yield jumped ~10 bps to ~4.9%, and the 10-year rose to ~5.30%, near its 24-year high of 5.365%. Odds of an Oct 28 Fed hike roughly doubled to ~44% from ~22% (CME FedWatch), with over 95% odds of at least one hike by year-end.
Oil: Brent gained 14%+ in September (~42% in Q3) and traded near $105 before the print. A core beat suggests energy costs are spreading into the broader economy, not just the pump.
My view (scenarios, not a call):
🛢️ Oil: While Middle East tensions escalate, upside risk stays. A de-escalation headline could unwind it quickly.
📈 Treasuries: A hot core print keeps yield pressure up, with the front end most sensitive to hike odds. Softer jobs or PCE data is what would cool it.
Where do you stand on oil and Treasuries after this print? Share your trade card below 👇
Not financial advice. Data as of Oct 14, 2026.
$BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT
#CPIWatch #iqralogichub