THE 10Y JUST LOST 20 BASIS POINTS AND BTC DID NOT EVEN FLINCH
Last night I said I was not buying this dip after the hot September print
This morning the bond market tried to prove me wrong and honestly it half did
The 10Y yield collapsed from above 5 point 3 to 5 point 1 overnight for a three week low
Fed officials Bowman Daly and Williams all pushed back on the hike panic
October hike odds spiked near 50 percent after the print and cooled toward the low 30s this morning
The dollar fell off its 18 month high and the $TMF trade is having its best morning in weeks
So the rate scare is fading fast
But look at the tape
$BTC ran to 83400 before the print then dumped to 81300 and it has been stuck near 81500 for 12 hours
58 million in BTC shorts got liquidated during the CPI day whipsaw and still no real bid showed up
$ETH is pinned under 2500 near 2400 while Asia keeps selling every risk asset in sight
That is the part that worries me
When bonds rally and $BTC still bleeds the problem is not rates anymore
It is a broken bid
ETF outflows plus about 67 billion in perp open interest sitting on top of a buyerless market is a dangerous mix
Maybe I am reading too much into one quiet night
I am wrong if Warsh sounds soft in Bangkok today and $BTC reclaims 83K on real ETF inflows
Then yesterday was the bottom and I will say so
But until the tape shows me buyers I am not confusing a bond rally with a crypto rally
Tell me where the real buyers are hiding
I will be here watching the 5 point 2 line on the 10Y
#BinanceSquare #WriteToEarn #Crypto #Bitcoin #CPIWatch
Last night I said I was not buying this dip after the hot September print
This morning the bond market tried to prove me wrong and honestly it half did
The 10Y yield collapsed from above 5 point 3 to 5 point 1 overnight for a three week low
Fed officials Bowman Daly and Williams all pushed back on the hike panic
October hike odds spiked near 50 percent after the print and cooled toward the low 30s this morning
The dollar fell off its 18 month high and the $TMF trade is having its best morning in weeks
So the rate scare is fading fast
But look at the tape
$BTC ran to 83400 before the print then dumped to 81300 and it has been stuck near 81500 for 12 hours
58 million in BTC shorts got liquidated during the CPI day whipsaw and still no real bid showed up
$ETH is pinned under 2500 near 2400 while Asia keeps selling every risk asset in sight
That is the part that worries me
When bonds rally and $BTC still bleeds the problem is not rates anymore
It is a broken bid
ETF outflows plus about 67 billion in perp open interest sitting on top of a buyerless market is a dangerous mix
Maybe I am reading too much into one quiet night
I am wrong if Warsh sounds soft in Bangkok today and $BTC reclaims 83K on real ETF inflows
Then yesterday was the bottom and I will say so
But until the tape shows me buyers I am not confusing a bond rally with a crypto rally
Tell me where the real buyers are hiding
I will be here watching the 5 point 2 line on the 10Y
#BinanceSquare #WriteToEarn #Crypto #Bitcoin #CPIWatch