$ZRO unlocks ~25.71M tokens next Monday, Oct 20

around $47M at today’s price that’s new supply hitting the market.

who gets these tokens? mostly the team and early partners people who got $ZRO cheap. now $ZRO is up a lot from September if you got tokens cheap and price is high, what would you do?

look at what happened after the last unlocks this year:

March: -12%
April: -17%
May: -19%
June: -25%
July: -10% every single time, price dropped within 2 weeks

August and September were different. price held up but that was during a big rally. and today ZRO already dropped ~15% in one day the rally is cooling down right before the unlock

to be fair, LayerZero does buybacks. and insiders haven’t sold everything in past unlocks so it’s not a guaranteed dump but $47M of new supply vs small buybacks? the math isn’t great

the level I’m watching is around $1.87-1.89 if ZRO holds there into the unlock, fine if it breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go lower