Two big events land this week September CPI comes out Wednesday Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday Both shape what the Fed does at its October 27-28 meeting

Where things stand The Fed raised rates a quarter point in September in a unanimous vote The range is now 3.75% to 4% In late September an October hike looked like a two-in-three shot Then inflation data cooled and Fed officials sounded patient The jobs report missed badly too Only 29,000 new jobs Unemployment rose to 4.2% Odds of an October hike now sit around 20% Traders expect a pause in October and a hike in December

So the market made its call Odds that swung this fast can swing back CPI could do it

Economists expect headline CPI to rise to 3.6% from 3.4% Oil is the main reason Core CPI which leaves out food and energy is expected at 2.5% up 0.2% on the month Core is the number I'm watching Bond yields are already near a 24-year high A hot print could push them higher

Cool core the pause looks safe December stays the next move

Hot core October is back on the table The Fed may need to move faster too

Hot headline calm core that's what economists expect Probably still a pause Warsh has said hikes can't directly fix oil prices His worry is oil spilling into everything else

Then Warsh He's in Bangkok for the IMF meetings It's Friday morning there late Thursday night in the US It's his last public appearance before the Fed's quiet period starts Saturday He avoids hints about the next move Don't expect pause or hike Expect clues Watch how he weighs weak jobs against sticky inflation

I lean toward a pause Jobs are weak Recent inflation readings came in softer than expected But a pause isn't the end Most officials still see one more hike before year-end

Don't chase the first move after CPI Wait for core Then hear what Warsh says Bitcoin fell about 4.5% last week Expect swings either way

Numbers are as of Monday and use Bloomberg's CPI forecast Some outlets show 3.7% for headline