BlockBeats news, October 12 — The global bond market selloff is creating a "market-driven tightening" effect: rising long-term bond yields are pushing up mortgage, corporate financing, and high-yield bond costs. Even though central banks have not raised rates again, financial conditions are already weighing on economic demand. The cumulative rate hike expectations implied by interest rate swaps across eight major economies have fallen from a September high of 717 basis points to about 539 basis points, a decline of 178 basis points, reflecting that investors are beginning to assess the tightening effect of the bond market itself and whether this could reduce the need for further central bank rate hikes.But rising yields are not driven solely by policy expectations. The U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium has risen to about 0.98%, the highest since 2014, indicating that investors are demanding greater additional compensation to hold long-term bonds; government financing needs, fiscal risks, and corporate AI infrastructure investment are together adding upward pressure on long-term bond yields. Although demand at recent U.S. Treasury auctions has improved somewhat, with high yields beginning to attract buyers, it is still not enough to dispel market doubts about long-term debt supply.Inflation data will determine whether this tightening can replace further rate hikes. Nomura expects U.S. September core CPI to rise 0.227% month over month, down from 0.290% in August; however, gasoline prices are expected to rise 9.3%, potentially pushing headline CPI up by about 0.58% month over month. If core inflation cools while energy prices drive overall prices higher, central banks will face the dilemma of an economy under pressure alongside sticky inflation. St. Louis Fed President Musalem still believes that further policy tightening may be needed over the next six to nine months.Therefore, the key is not just whether central banks raise rates again, but how much the bond market has already tightened, and whether high financing costs can truly cool demand. If the housing market, corporate investment, and consumption gradually cool, policy rates may not need to rise much; but if energy inflation spreads again, bond market tightening could occur alongside further central bank rate hikes, putting the economy under greater cumulative pressure.