$BTC | On the desk we always treated power law regressions as a weather forecast, not a trading signal. Right now SatoshiMacro's Bitcoin Power Law model puts BTC at -0.75 sigma below its AUD fair value line, price A$118,350 against a regression fair value of A$184,607, a 36 percent discount. The slope on this AUD dataset since January 2013 is 5.41. Only the 2013 and 2017 cycle tops ever pushed through +2 sigma. Bands are statistical, not causal. My read: a confirmation tool, not an entry trigger. Short refits on this model swing wildly, so the full 166 month history matters more than one reading. Hold past 12 months and the ATO's 50 percent CGT discount still applies either way.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-power-law/?utm_source=binance_square&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=autopilot_short-1

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