The AI bid in $MRVLB is not the debate. The entry is.
On October 6, Investor Day lifted the long-term story: FY28 revenue toward about $20 billion, a FY31 range of $70–90 billion, and a custom AI chip path toward about $30 billion. The stock tagged 301.27 that session. Three sessions later it is back near 269, about 11% under that wick. The headline was bought. The highs were sold.
Setup
My 4H read stays bullish only while 246–248 holds. A bullish CHoCH printed around 246–250, then a BOS near 265. Higher lows are intact. The short-term tape is a retrace, not a trend break. The 301 candle did three things: it wicked into supply at 292–301, swept equal highs near 300, and closed the late buyers out. That is a buy-side liquidity grab, not a fresh breakout.
Why now
This is the post-event hangover. From the July low near 163 to the 301 wick is about +85%. Price is still well above that low, and still about 18% under the June high at 329.88. On the full 163–330 range, equilibrium sits near 246. At 269, price is premium. On the last impulse, 248 to 300.5, the 0.618 sits near 268 — right where price is. That is the middle, not a location.
Levels
The clean zone is the overlap: 4H demand at 248–261 and the OTE pocket at 259–268. I want 255–261, and only after a reaction. A sweep under 255 plus a 1H or 15m CHoCH is the trigger. No blind limit. The stop belongs near 244.5, under demand and under the 246 pivot. Targets from the read: 285 first, 300 liquidity second, 330 weak high last. A market buy at 269 with that stop and a 300 target is about 1.3R. A reaction entry near 258 is about 3.1R to 300. I take the second. I pass the first.
Risk
A 4H close under 246 kills the bullish structure and opens 213–222. The other invalidation runs the other way: a 4H close through 302 means supply was absorbed. Then the plan flips to a retest of 292–300, with 330 still the magnet. Earnings timing is not confirmed, so this is not hung on a date.
What I do with it
No trade at 269. Alerts at 262 and 250. If 250 trades and the 4H still holds 246, I look for the reaction. If it closes under 246, the plan is off. Missing a straight run back to 300 is cheaper than buying the middle.
This is my chart read, not financial advice.