Market attention is also focused on the direction of US monetary policy after the minutes of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting were released.

A total of 12 committee members approved a 25 basis point interest rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The increase was the first tightening since 2023 and was aimed at suppressing PCE inflation at the 3.4% level.

Most members still see room for one more rate hike before the end of 2026. However, the Fed emphasized that there is no urgency to raise interest rates at the October 27-28 meeting and that it will make decisions based on available data.

The stance also took into account September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which showed growth of only 29,000 jobs.

Market expectations have also begun to shift. Based on CME FedWatch, the probability of rates being held increased to 78%-81.7%, while the probability of a rate hike fell to 18.3%-22%.
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