Bond market is the thing nobody in crypto is watching today.
10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%. That is a level last seen in 2002. The Nasdaq printed a record anyway. And Ray Dalio is out saying the US debt crisis could erupt within three years.
Here is the part that should make crypto people uncomfortable. Bitcoin keeps failing at $87k, ETH can't hold ETF flows for two weeks straight, and the asset that is supposed to be the escape hatch from sovereign debt is acting like a high-beta equity future.
The macro crowd has a clean narrative. Too much debt, rising yields, a dollar that keeps strengthening. That is historically the backdrop where bitcoin was supposed to shine. If it can't shine now, with yields at 24-year highs and the debt warning coming from Dalio himself, then the decoupling story is still just a story.
I'm watching the bond market more than the order book this week. Yields at 5.32% with equities at records is the tension. When that snaps, crypto finds out what it really is.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%. That is a level last seen in 2002. The Nasdaq printed a record anyway. And Ray Dalio is out saying the US debt crisis could erupt within three years.
Here is the part that should make crypto people uncomfortable. Bitcoin keeps failing at $87k, ETH can't hold ETF flows for two weeks straight, and the asset that is supposed to be the escape hatch from sovereign debt is acting like a high-beta equity future.
The macro crowd has a clean narrative. Too much debt, rising yields, a dollar that keeps strengthening. That is historically the backdrop where bitcoin was supposed to shine. If it can't shine now, with yields at 24-year highs and the debt warning coming from Dalio himself, then the decoupling story is still just a story.
I'm watching the bond market more than the order book this week. Yields at 5.32% with equities at records is the tension. When that snaps, crypto finds out what it really is.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
