The Fed outlook just shifted — but traders shouldn't read it as an immediate bullish signal. 👀
Markets now price:
🇺🇸 82.3% chance of no October hike
📉 17.7% chance of a 25 bp hike
📅 68.7% chance of a cumulative 25 bp hike by December.
So the real story isn't “Fed tightening is gone.”
It's:
October hike → less likely
December tightening → still the base case
The shift came after September payrolls added only 29K jobs, much weaker than expected.
For crypto, easier near-term expectations can support risk appetite — but BTC still has to prove it.
$BTC recently faced another rejection around $87K, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.25%.
The next major test?
🔥 October 14 CPI
If inflation stays controlled, rate-cut/hold expectations could strengthen.
If inflation reaccelerates, this entire repricing can reverse quickly.
So I'm watching Fed odds + CPI + BTC reaction, not just the headline.
