Today, 1.4 billion $ENA unlocks, about 14% of circulating supply. But Ethena already bought out the locked tokens of investors who sold after the peak.
So who is selling today?
And the buyback that's supposed to absorb this supply isn't running. The fee switch passed, but buybacks only start once USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion. Depending on the source, it sits around $4–5 billion. Approved and active are doing different jobs.
Whoever receives tokens today is, by definition, someone who held this long. One seller wallet declined the buyout, and there's no proof the rest keep holding. But it isn't the same seller pool the chart may be bracing for.
The flows disagree too. A wallet dormant for over a year sent 30 million ENA, about $7 million, to Binance. Wallets linked to Ethena were also pulling large amounts of ENA off exchanges. One looks like selling. The other doesn't.
One gap I couldn't close: sources disagree on the buyback mechanics. Is it 95% of net revenue, or a tiered 5% to 20% that scales with USDe supply? I couldn't reconcile them from primary docs, and that difference is most of the mechanism's value.
My read: "buyback coming" is the narrative. "Buyback running" isn't reality yet. The unlock risk is real, but smaller than the headline suggests, because the loudest sellers were removed in advance.
What I'm watching: USDe supply moving toward $7.5B, and whether recipient wallets start sending to exchanges over the next few weeks. Standard Chartered's $2 target assumes USDe reaches $40B by 2028. That's a forecast of the growth the buyback needs, not evidence it's arriving.
(The bigger 3.03B figure in some headlines is a different thing, still gated by Foundation consent. The 1.4B is what opens without restriction today.)
A conditional buyback doesn't pay you for supply arriving today. But a buyout that already removed the sellers might.
#ENA #Ethena #TokenUnlock #ZeroHunter #ZeroResearch
So who is selling today?
And the buyback that's supposed to absorb this supply isn't running. The fee switch passed, but buybacks only start once USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion. Depending on the source, it sits around $4–5 billion. Approved and active are doing different jobs.
Whoever receives tokens today is, by definition, someone who held this long. One seller wallet declined the buyout, and there's no proof the rest keep holding. But it isn't the same seller pool the chart may be bracing for.
The flows disagree too. A wallet dormant for over a year sent 30 million ENA, about $7 million, to Binance. Wallets linked to Ethena were also pulling large amounts of ENA off exchanges. One looks like selling. The other doesn't.
One gap I couldn't close: sources disagree on the buyback mechanics. Is it 95% of net revenue, or a tiered 5% to 20% that scales with USDe supply? I couldn't reconcile them from primary docs, and that difference is most of the mechanism's value.
My read: "buyback coming" is the narrative. "Buyback running" isn't reality yet. The unlock risk is real, but smaller than the headline suggests, because the loudest sellers were removed in advance.
What I'm watching: USDe supply moving toward $7.5B, and whether recipient wallets start sending to exchanges over the next few weeks. Standard Chartered's $2 target assumes USDe reaches $40B by 2028. That's a forecast of the growth the buyback needs, not evidence it's arriving.
(The bigger 3.03B figure in some headlines is a different thing, still gated by Foundation consent. The 1.4B is what opens without restriction today.)
A conditional buyback doesn't pay you for supply arriving today. But a buyout that already removed the sellers might.
#ENA #Ethena #TokenUnlock #ZeroHunter #ZeroResearch
