BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows
1. Why the simultaneous outflows
1. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly positive, institutions take profits and reduce positions
Before the nonfarm data release, some bulls had positioned early; after the data landed and the positive news was fully priced in, they chose to lock in profits by redeeming ETFs.
2. Divergent views on the subsequent market, hesitant to add positions
Although weaker employment delays rate hikes, the market has started trading on concerns of "too weak employment → recession risk," so institutions are unwilling to increase crypto asset exposure and choose to reduce it.
3. Feedback loop effect
If the price rebound is weak, it further triggers redemptions; redemptions bring spot selling pressure, suppressing upside, leading to a situation where good news comes out but prices can't rise.
2. Bullish or bearish?
✅ Medium-term logic: Nonfarm payrolls are bullish, the big picture remains unchanged (rate hikes delayed)
❌ Short-term market: ETF simultaneous outflows are a bearish signal
• BTC ETF outflows: The largest buying force weakens, the rebound lacks incremental funds to support it, making upward movement difficult.
• ETH ETF simultaneous outflows: The flexible asset funds retreat, indicating institutions' confidence in the altcoin sector and Ethereum ecosystem is cooling simultaneously.
3. Price movement forecast
1. Short term (1-3 days): volatile rebound but limited height
With macro support from nonfarm data, a direct sharp drop is unlikely; however, continuous ETF outflows will suppress upside, likely causing a rise and fall pattern, so don't expect a strong bullish breakout.
• BTC: Rebound faces pressure; every upward step encounters selling pressure from ETF redemptions.
• ETH: More elastic; if funds continue to flow out, gains will be weaker than BTC, and previous elasticity advantages will be diminished.
2. Two possible subsequent scenarios
① Positive scenario: Outflows last only 1-2 days, then quickly revert to net inflows → macro
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
1. Why the simultaneous outflows
1. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly positive, institutions take profits and reduce positions
Before the nonfarm data release, some bulls had positioned early; after the data landed and the positive news was fully priced in, they chose to lock in profits by redeeming ETFs.
2. Divergent views on the subsequent market, hesitant to add positions
Although weaker employment delays rate hikes, the market has started trading on concerns of "too weak employment → recession risk," so institutions are unwilling to increase crypto asset exposure and choose to reduce it.
3. Feedback loop effect
If the price rebound is weak, it further triggers redemptions; redemptions bring spot selling pressure, suppressing upside, leading to a situation where good news comes out but prices can't rise.
2. Bullish or bearish?
✅ Medium-term logic: Nonfarm payrolls are bullish, the big picture remains unchanged (rate hikes delayed)
❌ Short-term market: ETF simultaneous outflows are a bearish signal
• BTC ETF outflows: The largest buying force weakens, the rebound lacks incremental funds to support it, making upward movement difficult.
• ETH ETF simultaneous outflows: The flexible asset funds retreat, indicating institutions' confidence in the altcoin sector and Ethereum ecosystem is cooling simultaneously.
3. Price movement forecast
1. Short term (1-3 days): volatile rebound but limited height
With macro support from nonfarm data, a direct sharp drop is unlikely; however, continuous ETF outflows will suppress upside, likely causing a rise and fall pattern, so don't expect a strong bullish breakout.
• BTC: Rebound faces pressure; every upward step encounters selling pressure from ETF redemptions.
• ETH: More elastic; if funds continue to flow out, gains will be weaker than BTC, and previous elasticity advantages will be diminished.
2. Two possible subsequent scenarios
① Positive scenario: Outflows last only 1-2 days, then quickly revert to net inflows → macro
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
