đ END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT â October 2, 2026
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đ TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
U.S. September nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, far below the 84,000 expectation, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%; the possibility of a rate hike in October has nearly been taken off the table, and Treasury yields declined.
Wall Street opened strongly: the S&P 500 rose approximately 0.9%, the Dow gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.35%. Nvidia hit a new record and reached a $5.7 trillion market capitalization, while Nike fell 7% on disappointing revenue and 2027 job cuts.
Trump sent 9,000 troops to the Middle East and warned of a possible attack over concerns that a kidnapping attempt could have an Iranian connection. Oil prices fell sharply amid reports of strategic reserve releases: WTI at approximately $89.4, and Brent at approximately $99.9.
Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 and its Ethereum target to $3,028; the bank expects ETF inflows to be directed primarily toward Bitcoin.
The CLARITY Act fell 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold in the September 15 procedural vote, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against. The opposition votes of four Republican senators proved decisive; Stand With Crypto now supports three Senate candidates in the elections.
The SEC proposed crypto custody rules for investment advisers and funds; the proposal was noted as one of the final actions of the departing chair of the Crypto Task Force. Illinois, meanwhile, delayed its controversial 0.2% crypto tax by six months, subject to court approval.
September's hack losses reached approximately $766 million, making it the worst month of the year; the September 24 attack on Bitget resulted in approximately $387 million in outflows following the compromise of third-party security infrastructure.
In U.S. crypto ETFs, Bitcoin attracted $2.65 billion, Ethereum $832 million, Solana $271 million, and XRP $121 million in inflows during September; the nine-day inflow streak in Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $3.1 billion, ended on September 30 with $149 million in outflows.
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âż BITCOIN
$BTC rose approximately 3% during the day, reaching the $86,500 range; this is an area seen for the first time since January and for the second time in the past two weeks. The move is being driven by short-position closures, a weakening dollar, and easing Treasury yields; open interest increased by $2.3 billion, signaling renewed bullish interest, but part of the rally is coming from short covering, and its sustainability has not yet been confirmed.
$85,000 is the first line of defense as a reclaimed resistance level; below it, $82,000 is critical support. If $87,500 is broken, momentum could accelerate, while the broader-range high of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025, remains far away. BTC, which gained approximately 42% in the third quarter, saw its dominance approach 60%. Being approximately 28% below its level from a year ago indicates that the recovery is not yet structural.
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đ· ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH broke above the $2,600 range it had held since the end of September and settled around $2,740-$2,750; its monthly return is approximately 11.9%, ahead of BTC's 9.6% performance. Having risen approximately 54% over the past 90 days, ETH faces a profit-taking risk, which was also visible in the $59.6 million outflow from ETFs on September 30.
SOL was one of the strongest large-cap altcoins of the day at approximately $122, up around 4%, while XRP rose to $1.53, gaining approximately 3.5%. The NEAR ETF was the only category that did not record outflows on September 30, attracting $14 million in inflows.
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đ KEY CRYPTO NEWS
The NEAR Intents cross-chain system was attacked for approximately $3.8 million; the service was halted, and the team announced that it would fully compensate users for their losses.
Evernorth shareholders approved a $1 billion XRP treasury arrangement, marking an important step in the company's progress toward Nasdaq.
A proposal to burn staking rewards was removed from Ethereum's Hegota upgrade; the roadmap has changed.
Robinhood Wallet added tokenized stock swaps through the Arcus RFQ system; Robinhood Crypto management stated that the SEC's innovation exemption restricts the offering of tokenized stocks in the U.S.
Approximately 114 ETH was stolen after multisig signers were compromised in the Aave v3 Loop Safe module. According to CoinDesk, a MetaMask security incident led to the staking exit of validators representing approximately 523,000 ETH; this claim comes from a single source and should therefore await confirmation.
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đ TOKEN UNLOCKS
DoubleZero (2Z) â October 2 (time not published, not confirmed in TRT)
Amount: approximately 1.66 billion 2Z, approximately $113 million
Share of circulating supply: 47.69%
Recipients: Jump Crypto, Malbec Labs, institutional investors, team, contributors, and validators
Selling pressure: đŽ
Note: There is a one-year cliff, followed by linear vesting of approximately 31.1 million tokens per week through 2029. A large portion may have already entered the market during the day; the scope of exchange listings was not separately confirmed.
Ethena (ENA) â Monday, October 5 (time unconfirmed)
Amount: approximately 1.41 billion ENA, estimated at $210-$240 million (not officially confirmed, derived figure)
Share of circulating supply: approximately 14%
Recipients: seed investors, the Ethena Foundation, and two additional investor groups
Selling pressure: đĄ
Note: The foundation completed its monthly vesting and released the remaining investor tokens in a single batch; being transferable does not mean that they will be sold. Figures are inconsistent across sources and should therefore be interpreted cautiously.
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đ OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
With weekend trading volume thin, the market priced in the week's biggest macroeconomic data as a weak employment reading; the real test will come when the bond market opens on Monday. This time, the weak data was interpreted not as bad news but as a reduction in rate pressure; however, if the same data fuels recession concerns, risk appetite could quickly reverse.
For BTC, a sustained close above $85,000 opens the door to a test of $87,500, while a loss of $82,000 would confirm that today's short-covering rally was predominantly mechanical. Whether ETF inflows resume after the pause on September 30 will be the key indicator determining the sustainability of the move.
On the geopolitical front, tensions with Iran are directly affecting inflation expectations through oil; a military escalation could push oil higher again and crypto lower. October 6 marks the first anniversary of BTC's peak; the fact that price remains approximately 31% below the peak one year into the correction also puts Citi's $113,000 target into the context of its 12-month journey.