BTC GOT THE GOOD INFLATION NUMBER — THEN LOST THE BID
That’s the part traders should be watching.
Core PCE came in softer than expected and BTC pushed above $85K as October rate-hike pressure eased.
But the move didn’t hold.
U.S. Treasury yields are still doing the opposite of what BTC wants. The 10Y briefly reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, while Brent crude is back above $100.
Then there’s the ETF flow.
After nine straight sessions pulling in roughly $3.1B, U.S. spot BTC ETFs suddenly recorded $148.7M of net outflows on Sept. 30.
So BTC has a weird setup now:
Good inflation data → bullish headline
High long-term yields → liquidity headwind
ETF inflows → recently strong
ETF flows → just flipped negative
That creates the real test.
Can BTC hold $82K–$83K while yields stay elevated and ETF demand cools?
If it can, the market is showing that spot demand is strong enough to absorb the macro pressure.
If it can’t, then the $85K push may have been less of a breakout and more of a liquidity test.
I’m watching the reaction around $82K, not another bullish headline.$BTC
That’s the part traders should be watching.
Core PCE came in softer than expected and BTC pushed above $85K as October rate-hike pressure eased.
But the move didn’t hold.
U.S. Treasury yields are still doing the opposite of what BTC wants. The 10Y briefly reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, while Brent crude is back above $100.
Then there’s the ETF flow.
After nine straight sessions pulling in roughly $3.1B, U.S. spot BTC ETFs suddenly recorded $148.7M of net outflows on Sept. 30.
So BTC has a weird setup now:
Good inflation data → bullish headline
High long-term yields → liquidity headwind
ETF inflows → recently strong
ETF flows → just flipped negative
That creates the real test.
Can BTC hold $82K–$83K while yields stay elevated and ETF demand cools?
If it can, the market is showing that spot demand is strong enough to absorb the macro pressure.
If it can’t, then the $85K push may have been less of a breakout and more of a liquidity test.
I’m watching the reaction around $82K, not another bullish headline.$BTC
