Ethereum Besteht Einen Test Auf Überlegene Performance Im Q4

ZeroBlock · 2026-10-01T15:45:31.000Z

Was mich an Ethereum besonders interessiert hat, ist nicht nur der Anstieg von 70,8 % im Q3. Entscheidend ist, wie schnell ETH seine Position nach zwei schwierigen Quartalen verändert hat. Ethereum verlor im Q1 etwa 29,26 % und im Q2 weitere 25,28 %. Dann brachte das Q3 eine Erholung von 70,8 %. Das war stärker als der bisherige Quartalsrekord von 66,55 % im Q3 2025. ETH schnitt im gleichen Quartal auch um 42,71 % besser ab als Bitcoin. Aber ich würde nicht davon ausgehen, dass ein starkes Quartal das nächste garantiert. Historische Daten geben einen Grund, vorsichtig zu bleiben. Die gemeldete mediane Rendite von Ethereum im Q4 liegt bei rund 0,36 % im Vergleich zu einem historischen Durchschnitt von 16,97 %. Vergangene Renditen sagen zwar das nächste Quartal nicht voraus, zeigen aber, warum allein der Momentum-Effekt nicht ausreicht.

What caught my attention with Ethereum is not just the 70.8% gain in Q3.
It is how quickly ETH changed its position after two difficult quarters.
Ethereum lost around 29.26% in Q1 and another 25.28% in Q2. Then Q3 delivered a 70.8% recovery. That was stronger than its previous quarterly high of 66.55% in Q3 2025.
ETH also outperformed Bitcoin by 42.71% during the quarter.
But I would not assume that one strong quarter guarantees another.
Historical data gives a reason to stay cautious. Ethereum's median Q4 return is reportedly around 0.36% compared with a historical average of 16.97%. Past returns do not predict the next quarter but they show why momentum alone is not enough.
The whale activity is also interesting.
A wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH worth around $356.2M into a new wallet. This is a significant movement but it was not a direct exchange deposit. I would not treat it as confirmed selling or buying.
Another whale opened a $40.6M ETH long alongside a $33.62M Bitcoin short. That position is more interesting because it is designed to benefit from ETH outperforming BTC rather than simply betting on the entire market rising.
Now I am watching the ETH/BTC ratio.
It moved from around 0.0316 to 0.0325 before pulling back. Buyers defended the 0.0319 area and pushed it back toward 0.0323.
That level matters because ETH needs to maintain relative strength if the Q3 trend is going to continue.
Derivatives positioning is active too. Hyperliquid ETH open interest reportedly exceeds $3.1B while funding remains mildly positive around 0.00125% hourly.
That suggests long positioning is present but it also means leverage deserves attention.
For me the important question in Q4 is whether spot demand can support ETH while the ETH/BTC ratio continues holding higher levels.
If spot activity weakens then crowded expectations could unwind quickly.
ETH has already proved it can outperform Bitcoin for one quarter.
Now it needs to prove that the move has enough demand behind it to continue.