₿ BTC STRATEGY UPDATE - Sep 30 Close
Current: $83,300 (-1% today) - Holding above May high
📊 SITUATION:
- Range: $82,956 - $85,581 (tight channel)
- Support: $83k is KEY - 3rd time testing
- Resistance: $85k, then $85.5k-$86k (ETF cost basis $84,700)
- Trend: Daily still bullish - Price above EMA20 $81,964 / EMA50 $77,799 / EMA200 $73,693 | RSI 60
- ETF: +$2.8B inflow Sep 18-25, but last day only $31M (momentum slowing)
- Macro: PCE 3.0% (cooler than 3.3% est) - Fed hike odds down to 37% - 10Y yield still high at 5.26%
🎯 PLAN:
BULL CASE (Active if $83k holds):
Entry: $83,000 - $83,400 support bounce
Target 1: $85,000
Target 2: $86,000 (break this = strong)
Target 3: $88,509 (Upper Bollinger)
Invalidation: Daily close below $81,964
BEAR CASE:
Break below $83k -> $82,620 (Fib) -> $80,000
If $82k breaks: High $70s possible ($77,799 50-day EMA)
My Bias: RANGE for this week $82k-$87.5k
Action: Patiently waiting. Buy the dip at $83k, don't FOMO at $85k. No leverage until $85k daily close.
Invalidation: Daily close below $82k
Not financial advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin
Current: $83,300 (-1% today) - Holding above May high
📊 SITUATION:
- Range: $82,956 - $85,581 (tight channel)
- Support: $83k is KEY - 3rd time testing
- Resistance: $85k, then $85.5k-$86k (ETF cost basis $84,700)
- Trend: Daily still bullish - Price above EMA20 $81,964 / EMA50 $77,799 / EMA200 $73,693 | RSI 60
- ETF: +$2.8B inflow Sep 18-25, but last day only $31M (momentum slowing)
- Macro: PCE 3.0% (cooler than 3.3% est) - Fed hike odds down to 37% - 10Y yield still high at 5.26%
🎯 PLAN:
BULL CASE (Active if $83k holds):
Entry: $83,000 - $83,400 support bounce
Target 1: $85,000
Target 2: $86,000 (break this = strong)
Target 3: $88,509 (Upper Bollinger)
Invalidation: Daily close below $81,964
BEAR CASE:
Break below $83k -> $82,620 (Fib) -> $80,000
If $82k breaks: High $70s possible ($77,799 50-day EMA)
My Bias: RANGE for this week $82k-$87.5k
Action: Patiently waiting. Buy the dip at $83k, don't FOMO at $85k. No leverage until $85k daily close.
Invalidation: Daily close below $82k
Not financial advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin