#usjobopeningsfalltofivemonthlow The frightening part is actually more specific than Polymarket’s wording. The BLS does not say the typical job
search now takes 6 months. The mean duration of unemployment is 26.3 weeks, while the median is only 11.4 weeks because a growing tail of people is getting trapped without work. 1.93 million Americans are now unemployed 27 weeks or longer, equal to 27% of all unemployed people, versus about 1.24 million and 20.6% in August 2019. That is roughly 55% more long term unemployed than before COVID, despite headline unemployment still sitting at only 4.1%.
Even worse, among permanent job losers, 32.9% have been unemployed at least 27 weeks. Pair that with a 1.9% quits rate, weak private hiring and job openings continuing to fall, and you get the real late cycle pathology. Companies are not firing everyone at once, but once someone loses a job, the probability of getting absorbed back into employment is deteriorating materially. That is exactly how a low hire, low fire labor market can look deceptively stable right before unemployment begins accelerating.$SOON $MOVR $MEW
search now takes 6 months. The mean duration of unemployment is 26.3 weeks, while the median is only 11.4 weeks because a growing tail of people is getting trapped without work. 1.93 million Americans are now unemployed 27 weeks or longer, equal to 27% of all unemployed people, versus about 1.24 million and 20.6% in August 2019. That is roughly 55% more long term unemployed than before COVID, despite headline unemployment still sitting at only 4.1%.
Even worse, among permanent job losers, 32.9% have been unemployed at least 27 weeks. Pair that with a 1.9% quits rate, weak private hiring and job openings continuing to fall, and you get the real late cycle pathology. Companies are not firing everyone at once, but once someone loses a job, the probability of getting absorbed back into employment is deteriorating materially. That is exactly how a low hire, low fire labor market can look deceptively stable right before unemployment begins accelerating.$SOON $MOVR $MEW