#BinanceWillListHyperliquid(HYPE) #OndoFinanceSoughtSaleAfterFoundersDeath *#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsRiseTo69.7%* đ
Markets now pricing back-to-back hikes.
### The numbers - CME FedWatch
- *Oct 28 meeting*:
- 69.7% chance +25bp to *4.00-4.25%*
- 30.3% hold at *3.75-4.00%*
- *Trend*: 8.8% a month ago â 48.7% a week ago â 55.4% yesterday â *69.7% today*
- *Dec outlook*: 6.5% no more hikes, 38.7% one more (+25bp), 54.8% two more (+50bp cumulative)
### Why the surge
1. *Hot data*: Flash US PMI Manufacturing *52.0* (expected 51.1), Composite >58 - strongest private expansion since mid-2021. Input costs rising fastest in 4 years
2. *Fed hiked Sept 16*: First hike since 2023, +25bp to 3.75-4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh framing it as "removing accommodation" - markets took it as start of a cycle, not one-and-done
3. *Hawkish Fedspeak* + rising oil + weak Treasury auction ($NVDA.US 70B 5Y at highest yield since 2006)
### Market reaction
- *2Y yield*: 4.89% - highest since May 2024
- *10Y yield*: 5.10-5.20% - highest since 2007, biggest 1-day jump since April 2025
- *Stocks*: Dow futures -0.17%, S&P -0.34%, Nasdaq -0.5% - Wednesday S&P -0.75%
- *Dollar*: DXY bid, EUR/USD pushed to 1.1323-1.1353 decision zone
- *Crypto*: Total cap $NVDAB 2.96T down 2.4%, BTC under pressure, silver XAG $64.10 down as yields rise
Polymarket also at 69%, Kalshi 56% - so prediction markets aligning with CME.
UBS thinks it's overdone - sees 1 more hike in Dec then hold, expecting core PCE revision down 0.2pp soon.
*Bottom line*:$AAPLB # From "cut" talk in August to pricing *2 more hikes by Dec*. Oil + PMI killed the dovish narrative.
Want *FedWatch history chart* for Oct odds?
Markets now pricing back-to-back hikes.
### The numbers - CME FedWatch
- *Oct 28 meeting*:
- 69.7% chance +25bp to *4.00-4.25%*
- 30.3% hold at *3.75-4.00%*
- *Trend*: 8.8% a month ago â 48.7% a week ago â 55.4% yesterday â *69.7% today*
- *Dec outlook*: 6.5% no more hikes, 38.7% one more (+25bp), 54.8% two more (+50bp cumulative)
### Why the surge
1. *Hot data*: Flash US PMI Manufacturing *52.0* (expected 51.1), Composite >58 - strongest private expansion since mid-2021. Input costs rising fastest in 4 years
2. *Fed hiked Sept 16*: First hike since 2023, +25bp to 3.75-4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh framing it as "removing accommodation" - markets took it as start of a cycle, not one-and-done
3. *Hawkish Fedspeak* + rising oil + weak Treasury auction ($NVDA.US 70B 5Y at highest yield since 2006)
### Market reaction
- *2Y yield*: 4.89% - highest since May 2024
- *10Y yield*: 5.10-5.20% - highest since 2007, biggest 1-day jump since April 2025
- *Stocks*: Dow futures -0.17%, S&P -0.34%, Nasdaq -0.5% - Wednesday S&P -0.75%
- *Dollar*: DXY bid, EUR/USD pushed to 1.1323-1.1353 decision zone
- *Crypto*: Total cap $NVDAB 2.96T down 2.4%, BTC under pressure, silver XAG $64.10 down as yields rise
Polymarket also at 69%, Kalshi 56% - so prediction markets aligning with CME.
UBS thinks it's overdone - sees 1 more hike in Dec then hold, expecting core PCE revision down 0.2pp soon.
*Bottom line*:$AAPLB # From "cut" talk in August to pricing *2 more hikes by Dec*. Oil + PMI killed the dovish narrative.
Want *FedWatch history chart* for Oct odds?