The U.S. Treasury plans to buy back up to $BTC of long-term Treasuries on Thursday. That can ease some selling pressure in the bond market, but I would not call it a fresh Fed liquidity injection. It is more like temporary pressure relief for the long end of the Treasury market.
The bigger variable for me is still oil. Brent has been highly volatile around the $100area, and as long as energy prices remain elevated, inflation could stay sticky. That can keep long-term Treasury yields high and limit how much room the Fed has to ease.
So the chain I am watching is simple: Oil → inflation → Treasury yields → Fed policy → risk assets → Bitcoin.
If oil starts falling sustainably and bond yields follow, the macro environment could become more supportive for BTC and stocks. If oil stays elevated and yields remain high, today's Treasury buyback may only buy the market some time rather than change the bigger trend.
For now, I would rather stay patient than chase the headline. The next Bitcoin move may depend less on the Treasury buyback itself and more on what happens next with oil, inflation and yields.
$BTC #btc
The bigger variable for me is still oil. Brent has been highly volatile around the $100area, and as long as energy prices remain elevated, inflation could stay sticky. That can keep long-term Treasury yields high and limit how much room the Fed has to ease.
So the chain I am watching is simple: Oil → inflation → Treasury yields → Fed policy → risk assets → Bitcoin.
If oil starts falling sustainably and bond yields follow, the macro environment could become more supportive for BTC and stocks. If oil stays elevated and yields remain high, today's Treasury buyback may only buy the market some time rather than change the bigger trend.
For now, I would rather stay patient than chase the headline. The next Bitcoin move may depend less on the Treasury buyback itself and more on what happens next with oil, inflation and yields.
$BTC #btc