Max pain sits at $75K, about $10K below Bitcoin's current price near $85K. That would be a 12% drop, but the market structure makes it unlikely.
The key data: $15.9B in $BTC options and $2.1B in ETH options expire Friday, September 25 on Deribit. One of the largest quarterly settlements of the year.
The positioning is heavily call-dominated. The put/call ratio is 0.69, meaning most traders are betting on upside. Over 55% of call positions worth $9.4B are already in the money, while put positions are almost entirely worthless.
The biggest call walls sit at $85K, $90K, and $100K. Those levels act like magnets because market makers have to hedge there.
Why max pain is not the target: The distance from $85K to $75K is unusually large. The market would need to lose massive momentum to reach it. The gamma flip point sits near $71K. Above that level, dealer hedging dampens volatility, making a drop to $75K even harder.
The real risk is not the max pain magnet. It is the drop in buying support after settlement. When dealer hedging flows disappear after Friday, price could become vulnerable to a pullback, but toward $80K rather than $75K.
The key data: $15.9B in $BTC options and $2.1B in ETH options expire Friday, September 25 on Deribit. One of the largest quarterly settlements of the year.
The positioning is heavily call-dominated. The put/call ratio is 0.69, meaning most traders are betting on upside. Over 55% of call positions worth $9.4B are already in the money, while put positions are almost entirely worthless.
The biggest call walls sit at $85K, $90K, and $100K. Those levels act like magnets because market makers have to hedge there.
Why max pain is not the target: The distance from $85K to $75K is unusually large. The market would need to lose massive momentum to reach it. The gamma flip point sits near $71K. Above that level, dealer hedging dampens volatility, making a drop to $75K even harder.
The real risk is not the max pain magnet. It is the drop in buying support after settlement. When dealer hedging flows disappear after Friday, price could become vulnerable to a pullback, but toward $80K rather than $75K.