Bitcoin just closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. The Fed hiked rates. The CLARITY Act failed by one vote. ETFs saw their largest single-day outflows since June. BTC pumped 5% anyway and closed above the signal that has ended 84% of bear markets in history. That reaction tells you more than the signal itself. 👇
Here is what Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn found across 13 comparable instances since 2012. $BTC
In 11 of 13 cases where Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week MA after an extended period below it the bear market was already over. Not approaching its end. Already over. The low was already in. In the two exceptions BTC made new lows after a temporary reclaim before the real bottom formed.
Here is the specific condition that separates the 11 from the 2.
The false signals both occurred when the reclaim happened on light volume with macro headwinds still fully intact. The confirmed signals occurred when price absorbed bad news and held the level anyway.
This week Bitcoin absorbed a Fed rate hike, a BOJ hike to 31-year highs, a one-vote Senate failure on CLARITY, and the largest ETF outflows since June. Then closed a weekly candle at $81,159 above $78,788 regardless.
That is not a reclaim on relief. That is a reclaim into maximum negative pressure.
The 50-week MA has now become support. The question is whether the next weekly close holds it.
$90K or a retest of $78,788 first? 👇
$BTC #bitcoin #BTCanalysis #CryptoOpinions
Here is what Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn found across 13 comparable instances since 2012. $BTC
In 11 of 13 cases where Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week MA after an extended period below it the bear market was already over. Not approaching its end. Already over. The low was already in. In the two exceptions BTC made new lows after a temporary reclaim before the real bottom formed.
Here is the specific condition that separates the 11 from the 2.
The false signals both occurred when the reclaim happened on light volume with macro headwinds still fully intact. The confirmed signals occurred when price absorbed bad news and held the level anyway.
This week Bitcoin absorbed a Fed rate hike, a BOJ hike to 31-year highs, a one-vote Senate failure on CLARITY, and the largest ETF outflows since June. Then closed a weekly candle at $81,159 above $78,788 regardless.
That is not a reclaim on relief. That is a reclaim into maximum negative pressure.
The 50-week MA has now become support. The question is whether the next weekly close holds it.
$90K or a retest of $78,788 first? 👇
$BTC #bitcoin #BTCanalysis #CryptoOpinions
