Analyst PlanB has declared the
Bitcoin bear market over, saying the token has reclaimed the 50-week moving average at approximately $79,000 with the 100-week average around $89,000 as the next target.
He pointed to Bitcoin's August close of $78,571 alongside improving indicators: the proportion of supply in profit rising from 50% to 72%, and monthly RSI climbing from 41 to 51.
Two Different 50-Week Lines Are in Circulation
The level PlanB cites does not match the figure appearing elsewhere this month.
Glassnode and technical coverage through September have placed the 50-week simple moving average at $81,081, where Bitcoin was rejected at an $81,265 intraday high in late August and has not cleared since.
The 50-week exponential moving average sits lower at $77,430. Bitcoin reclaimed that line on Monday, lost it Tuesday when price fell below $75,000, and recovered it again this week.
The EMA weights recent prices more heavily, which pulls it down during a drawdown and makes it the first line reclaimed on a recovery. The SMA is the slower, more demanding test.
At $78,000, Bitcoin sits above the EMA and below the SMA. Which line counts determines whether the reclaim has happened, and PlanB's $79,000 figure matches neither exactly.
The Underlying Indicators Are Verifiable
The supporting data is stronger than the level dispute suggests.
Supply in profit rising from 50% to 72% is a substantial shift. That metric tracks what share of circulating Bitcoin was acquired below the current price, and a 22-point move means a large cohort of holders has crossed from underwater to profitable.
