GSR looked at more than 2,300 token listings on major exchanges since 2013, delisted ones included. The findings are worth sitting with.
1. The median listed token fell below its offering price within three days, and was down 50% inside 90 days.
2. Float at listing collapsed. Median circulating supply was 38% in 2017 and 13% by 2020, recovering only to the teens and low twenties in most years since.
3. The float shrinks as the valuation grows. Tokens issued below $10M FDV came to market with 97% circulating. Above $1B FDV, 13%.
4. That combination shows up in returns. The above-$1B FDV group had a median one-year return of -81%. Tokens listing with under 20% float lost roughly 75% over a year; those with 30-50% float lost roughly 45%.
A low float does not create value. It postpones supply. What decides the next twelve months for any new listing is the unlock schedule sitting behind that float, not the first week of price action.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Which part of a launch do you read first, the float, the FDV, or the unlock calendar?
1. The median listed token fell below its offering price within three days, and was down 50% inside 90 days.
2. Float at listing collapsed. Median circulating supply was 38% in 2017 and 13% by 2020, recovering only to the teens and low twenties in most years since.
3. The float shrinks as the valuation grows. Tokens issued below $10M FDV came to market with 97% circulating. Above $1B FDV, 13%.
4. That combination shows up in returns. The above-$1B FDV group had a median one-year return of -81%. Tokens listing with under 20% float lost roughly 75% over a year; those with 30-50% float lost roughly 45%.
A low float does not create value. It postpones supply. What decides the next twelve months for any new listing is the unlock schedule sitting behind that float, not the first week of price action.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Which part of a launch do you read first, the float, the FDV, or the unlock calendar?