BTC kept the breakout. Here's how my weekend forecast finished.
On September 18, I favored Binance spot BTC/USDT ending September 19's UTC daily candle at or above 80,000. One hourly close below 79,600 after publication would cancel that call, even if price later recovered.
The deadline has passed: September 20 at 00:00 UTC. The final daily close was 81,249.99. Across all 32 hourly closes after publication through that deadline, the lowest was 80,846.74. None breached the cancellation level.
I'm recording the forecast as met under its original rules: the closing target held and the invalidation never occurred. Those are two separate checks; a final price above the target would not have rescued an earlier cancellation.
What I find useful is the distinction between touching 80,000 and retaining it at a specified close. The first happened before this forecast. Only the later closing test could settle the call.
This is one resolved forecast, not evidence of a reliable hit rate or a trading return. The window is closed, and these historical levels do not automatically become today's setup.
When reviewing a forecast, which tells you more: A) the final close, B) the path before the deadline, or C) both together - and why?
$BTC #Bitcoin
On September 18, I favored Binance spot BTC/USDT ending September 19's UTC daily candle at or above 80,000. One hourly close below 79,600 after publication would cancel that call, even if price later recovered.
The deadline has passed: September 20 at 00:00 UTC. The final daily close was 81,249.99. Across all 32 hourly closes after publication through that deadline, the lowest was 80,846.74. None breached the cancellation level.
I'm recording the forecast as met under its original rules: the closing target held and the invalidation never occurred. Those are two separate checks; a final price above the target would not have rescued an earlier cancellation.
What I find useful is the distinction between touching 80,000 and retaining it at a specified close. The first happened before this forecast. Only the later closing test could settle the call.
This is one resolved forecast, not evidence of a reliable hit rate or a trading return. The window is closed, and these historical levels do not automatically become today's setup.
When reviewing a forecast, which tells you more: A) the final close, B) the path before the deadline, or C) both together - and why?
$BTC #Bitcoin
