Against the crowd here but...
Bitcoin's 2016 and 2020 halving cycles saw peaks roughly 18 months after the supply cut. If that pattern holds, the next major top could land in late 2025. But history rhymes, it does not repeat.
→ Each cycle has delivered diminishing returns. The 2017 bull run gave 30x. 2021 gave 8x. A 3-5x from current levels would still be significant.
→ Bear markets historically bottom 12-14 months before the next halving. That window has already passed. What we see now is accumulation, not distribution.
→ Real cycle drivers are liquidity and global M2 expansion. Halvings matter, but they are not the sole catalyst. Watch Fed policy as closely as you watch on-chain data.
→ Most retail investors capitulate near the bottom and FOMO in near the top. The edge is simple: study prior cycles and position before the crowd moves.
The cycle is not dead. It is just maturing. Plan for volatility, respect the data, and avoid emotional decisions at extremes. That is how you survive multiple cycles, not just one.
Your thoughts?
#CryptoBasics #LearnCrypto #Bitcoin #Trading #CryptoCommunity
📱 Follow @PoorCryptoMan
Bitcoin's 2016 and 2020 halving cycles saw peaks roughly 18 months after the supply cut. If that pattern holds, the next major top could land in late 2025. But history rhymes, it does not repeat.
→ Each cycle has delivered diminishing returns. The 2017 bull run gave 30x. 2021 gave 8x. A 3-5x from current levels would still be significant.
→ Bear markets historically bottom 12-14 months before the next halving. That window has already passed. What we see now is accumulation, not distribution.
→ Real cycle drivers are liquidity and global M2 expansion. Halvings matter, but they are not the sole catalyst. Watch Fed policy as closely as you watch on-chain data.
→ Most retail investors capitulate near the bottom and FOMO in near the top. The edge is simple: study prior cycles and position before the crowd moves.
The cycle is not dead. It is just maturing. Plan for volatility, respect the data, and avoid emotional decisions at extremes. That is how you survive multiple cycles, not just one.
Your thoughts?
#CryptoBasics #LearnCrypto #Bitcoin #Trading #CryptoCommunity
📱 Follow @PoorCryptoMan