A strategy can generate the same return with two very different levels of forecast efficiency.

Imagine two models both produce +15% annually.

Model A makes 200 predictions and trades 80 of them.

Model B makes 2,000 predictions, constantly changes direction, and still ends at the same +15%.

The final P&L hides an important difference:

One system extracts more economic value from each forecast.

The other requires far more signals, decisions, and execution to reach the same destination.

That matters because every additional action introduces another opportunity for spread, slippage, and human error.

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But the stronger system is not necessarily the one producing the most signals.

Information has value only when it improves allocation.

A model that needs 10× more predictions to produce the same return may not be more sophisticated.

It may simply be noisier.

The objective is not maximum activity from your research.

It is maximum economic value from each useful piece of information.