$BTC
Tonight, the Fed’s 25 basis points — what Bitcoin is really afraid of isn’t the rate hike
Right now, the whole market is asking one question:
Will the Fed raise rates tonight?
To be honest, that’s not the point anymore.
As of September 16, markets have already priced in more than 90% for this Fed hike of 25 basis points, and it’s the first expected hike since July 2023.
What really makes people nervous is what comes next.
Inflation is still above 3%, oil prices have been pushed close to $100 again by geopolitical tensions, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also climbed back above 5%. Put these together, and it really isn’t that easy for the Fed to simply “let go.”
So tonight, I’m not focused on those 25 basis points.
Is this rate increase a one-shot move, or is it tightening all over again from the start?
If it’s only +25 basis points and they tell the market to watch the data going forward, after Bitcoin gets hammered, it could even see a quick snapback.
But if the wording is clearly hawkish, or even hints that they might continue hiking by year-end, then it’s going to be a problem.
Because Bitcoin today is already not having an easy time.
The CLARITY Act hasn’t passed, and Bitcoin has once again fallen to around $75,000, with both macro and regulatory pressures weighing on it at the same time.
So don’t let the words “+25 basis points” scare you.
What truly determines tonight’s direction is whether the Fed wants the market to be afraid once, or to be afraid for a stretch of time.
At 2 a.m., the answer will be revealed.
Tonight, the Fed’s 25 basis points — what Bitcoin is really afraid of isn’t the rate hike
Right now, the whole market is asking one question:
Will the Fed raise rates tonight?
To be honest, that’s not the point anymore.
As of September 16, markets have already priced in more than 90% for this Fed hike of 25 basis points, and it’s the first expected hike since July 2023.
What really makes people nervous is what comes next.
Inflation is still above 3%, oil prices have been pushed close to $100 again by geopolitical tensions, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also climbed back above 5%. Put these together, and it really isn’t that easy for the Fed to simply “let go.”
So tonight, I’m not focused on those 25 basis points.
Is this rate increase a one-shot move, or is it tightening all over again from the start?
If it’s only +25 basis points and they tell the market to watch the data going forward, after Bitcoin gets hammered, it could even see a quick snapback.
But if the wording is clearly hawkish, or even hints that they might continue hiking by year-end, then it’s going to be a problem.
Because Bitcoin today is already not having an easy time.
The CLARITY Act hasn’t passed, and Bitcoin has once again fallen to around $75,000, with both macro and regulatory pressures weighing on it at the same time.
So don’t let the words “+25 basis points” scare you.
What truly determines tonight’s direction is whether the Fed wants the market to be afraid once, or to be afraid for a stretch of time.
At 2 a.m., the answer will be revealed.
