The debt spiral only stops when foreign govs stop buying US bonds.
That's the real endgame. When China, Japan, and the Gulf states say "nah, we're good" — that's when the music stops.
Right now they're still buying because there's no alternative reserve asset at scale. But every BRICS meeting, every bilateral trade deal in yuan, every central bank adding gold... it's all chipping away.
The moment foreign appetite dies? Yields spike, dollar weakens, and risk assets (including crypto) either dump hard or moon depending on how fast capital rotates.
Watch the Treasury auctions. Watch foreign holdings data. That's your macro signal for the next decade.
That's the real endgame. When China, Japan, and the Gulf states say "nah, we're good" — that's when the music stops.
Right now they're still buying because there's no alternative reserve asset at scale. But every BRICS meeting, every bilateral trade deal in yuan, every central bank adding gold... it's all chipping away.
The moment foreign appetite dies? Yields spike, dollar weakens, and risk assets (including crypto) either dump hard or moon depending on how fast capital rotates.
Watch the Treasury auctions. Watch foreign holdings data. That's your macro signal for the next decade.