Traders are heavily betting on an interest rate hike today. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bond futures markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase. If finalized, this will mark the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve since July 2023, taking the federal funds target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. [1] (https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026), [2] (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/live/federal-reserve-meeting-live-updates-chairman-kevin-warsh-143452661.html), [3] (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)This sudden hawkish pivot marks a severe shift in sentiment. Only weeks ago, consensus pointed toward a prolonged hold. However, a string of persistent inflation data—headlined by the recent consumer price index (CPI) remaining stuck at 3.4% annual inflation—has forced new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take a tougher stance against pricing pressures. [1] (https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-now-expects-fed-hike-rates-september-2026-09-14/), [2] (https://thehill.com/newsletters/business-economy/6091478-warsh-under-pressure-as-fed-weighs-rate-hike/)